460
FXUS61 KBOX 061740
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1240 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN SPRINGTIME
WARMTH, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
RIVER FLOODING NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- BLACK ICE COULD LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL THROUGH SATURDAY,
BEFORE TURNING MILDER THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- SPRINGTIME WARMTH NEXT WEEK MAY LEAD TO MINOR RIVER FLOODING
FROM MELTING SNOW, BUT WE ALSO NEED TO WATCH A BACKDOOR FRONT
TO THE NORTH, WHICH COULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WED-THU.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BLACK ICE COULD LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL THROUGH
SATURDAY, BEFORE TURNING MILDER THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
BE AWARE THAT DESPITE CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH TONIGHT, RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING COULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLACK ICE OVER MORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHICH
MAY LAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT AT THIS POINT WE DON'T HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. FOR NOW WE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL, AND IF IT BECOMES
MORE LIKELY, THEN ADVISORIES CAN BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE OVER REGION WITH INCREASING SW FLOW
AND WE LOSE THE LOW CLOUD COVER A BIT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A DEEPLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS
LOCKED IN ON SATURDAY. A WEAK AND FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS, BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE IMPACTFUL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SPRINGTIME WARMTH NEXT WEEK MAY LEAD TO MINOR RIVER
FLOODING FROM MELTING SNOW, BUT WE ALSO NEED TO WATCH A BACKDOOR
FRONT TO THE NORTH, WHICH COULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WED-THU.
WARMER WEATHER LOOKS TO PEAK TUESDAY WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS
WELL INTO 60S, IF NOT THE FIRST 70-DEGREE TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
IN A A FEW LOCATIONS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WELL ADVERTISED
PATTERN CHANGE SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH,
BUT WE ARE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHERN STREAM TO BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME, MOST NOTABLY IN WED-THU TIMEFRAME.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING PER ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS (NOW IN 20-40% PROBABILITY RANGE) STARTING WITH SMALLER
RIVERS SOMETIME MON-TUE AND LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE
CONNECTICUT LATER IN WEEK (THU-FRI). MANY AREAS STILL HAVE A DEEP
AND WATER-LOADED SNOWPACK WITH DEPTHS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 20 INCHES AND
WATER CONTENT OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
ONE THING WE DO HAVE TO WATCH IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION WED-THU (MAYBE AS EARLY AS LATE TUE?).
LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC SPRING SETUP WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THIS MAY BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN
WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH (KEEPING US WARM)
OR PUSHES SOUTH AND BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY, IT COULD BE A TYPICAL SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE A VERY
LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHWEST
CT.
WE DO SEE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
HOWEVER, WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND AN END TO THE EARLY
SPRING WARMTH, BUT NOTHING UNUSUALLY COLD, MORE LIKE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE: MODERATE CONFIDENCE (40%).
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND EXTENT OF -DZ/-FZDZ AND
BR/FG THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WE'RE STARTING TO SEE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXPAND ON COVERAGE ON RADAR, SO CONDITIONS COULD
LOWER QUICKER THAN FORECAST. ONCE CONDITIONS COME DOWN, HOWEVER,
WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE IMPROVEMENT UNTIL SATURDAY, AND EVEN THEN
IT WILL BE SLOW AT BEST.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CONDITIONS COULD
LOWER FASTER THAN FORECAST BUT AM MORE CONFIDENT IN TRENDS
STARTING AT 23Z. COULD SEE VERY BRIEF -FZDZ BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CONDITIONS COULD
LOWER FASTER THAN FORECAST BUT AM MORE CONFIDENT IN TRENDS
STARTING AT 01Z.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE RA, PATCHY BR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE RA, PATCHY BR.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SCAS REMAIN POSTED FOR LINGERING NE 25-30KT GUSTS INTO THE EVENING,
AND A BIT LONGER FOR THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE SEAS WHERE SEAS
PROBABLY WON'T SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN WE SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
FARTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS BECOME S/SW OVER WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK AND FAST MOVING LOW CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF 25KT GUSTS TO MOST OF THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN, PATCHY FOG.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
254>256.
DISCUSSION...JWD
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
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