779
FXUS61 KBOX 070356
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1056 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN SPRINGTIME
WARMTH, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
RIVER FLOODING NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- BLACK ICE COULD LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL THROUGH SATURDAY,
BEFORE TURNING MILDER THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- SPRINGTIME WARMTH NEXT WEEK MAY LEAD TO MINOR RIVER FLOODING
FROM MELTING SNOW, BUT WE ALSO NEED TO WATCH A BACKDOOR FRONT
TO THE NORTH, WHICH COULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WED-THU.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BLACK ICE COULD LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL THROUGH
SATURDAY, BEFORE TURNING MILDER THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
BE AWARE THAT DESPITE CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH TONIGHT, RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING COULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLACK ICE OVER MORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHICH
MAY LAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT AT THIS POINT WE DON'T HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. FOR NOW WE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL, AND IF IT BECOMES
MORE LIKELY, THEN ADVISORIES CAN BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE OVER REGION WITH INCREASING SW FLOW
AND WE LOSE THE LOW CLOUD COVER A BIT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A DEEPLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS
LOCKED IN ON SATURDAY. A WEAK AND FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS, BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE IMPACTFUL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SPRINGTIME WARMTH NEXT WEEK MAY LEAD TO MINOR RIVER
FLOODING FROM MELTING SNOW, BUT WE ALSO NEED TO WATCH A BACKDOOR
FRONT TO THE NORTH, WHICH COULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WED-THU.
WARMER WEATHER LOOKS TO PEAK TUESDAY WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS
WELL INTO 60S, IF NOT THE FIRST 70-DEGREE TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
IN A A FEW LOCATIONS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WELL ADVERTISED
PATTERN CHANGE SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH,
BUT WE ARE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHERN STREAM TO BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME, MOST NOTABLY IN WED-THU TIMEFRAME.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING PER ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS (NOW IN 20-40% PROBABILITY RANGE) STARTING WITH SMALLER
RIVERS SOMETIME MON-TUE AND LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE
CONNECTICUT LATER IN WEEK (THU-FRI). MANY AREAS STILL HAVE A DEEP
AND WATER-LOADED SNOWPACK WITH DEPTHS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 20 INCHES AND
WATER CONTENT OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
ONE THING WE DO HAVE TO WATCH IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION WED-THU (MAYBE AS EARLY AS LATE TUE?).
LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC SPRING SETUP WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THIS MAY BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN
WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH (KEEPING US WARM)
OR PUSHES SOUTH AND BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY, IT COULD BE A TYPICAL SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE A VERY
LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHWEST
CT.
WE DO SEE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
HOWEVER, WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND AN END TO THE EARLY
SPRING WARMTH, BUT NOTHING UNUSUALLY COLD, MORE LIKE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LINGERING -DZ AND
LOCALIZED -FZDZ WHICH WAS MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL COME TO AN
END BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SSW AT 8-
15 KNOTS WITH SOME 20+ KNOT GUSTS TODAY. THIS MAY ALLOW CIGS/VSBYS TO
IMPROVE VERY SLIGHTLY TO IFR LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORED NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ADVECTION FOG PERHAPS
EVEN DENSE AT TIMES WILL IMPACT AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE AND
ISLANDS.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A BAND OF OF SHOWERS WILL APPROACH WESTERN MA/CT AFTER 03Z/04Z
TONIGHT AND MAY REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN 06Z/07Z. WHILE THE SHOWERS
WILL BE UNDERGOING A WEAKENING TREND...THEY STILL MAY SURVIVE IN
SOME FORM AND REACH THE COAST. PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. S-SW WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS. WE ALSO
WILL HAVE LLWS IN THE TAFS GIVEN AN 850 MB SOUTHWEST LLJ ON THE
ORDER OF 55-70 KNOTS.
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS
EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE & ISLANDS WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY
PERSIST. SW WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE W AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SCAS REMAIN POSTED FOR LINGERING NE 25-30KT GUSTS INTO THE EVENING,
AND A BIT LONGER FOR THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE SEAS WHERE SEAS
PROBABLY WON'T SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN WE SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
FARTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS BECOME S/SW OVER WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK AND FAST MOVING LOW CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF 25KT GUSTS TO MOST OF THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN, PATCHY FOG.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
254>256.
DISCUSSION...JWD
AVIATION...FRANK
MARINE...JWD
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