566
FXUS61 KBOX 160530
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
130 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NOT WITHIN THE HIGH WIND WATCH. THE STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CONVERTED
TO A STORM WARNING FOR ALL WATERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MINOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS
LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT, MAY LEAD TO SOME RIVER AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. POOR DRAINAGE IN URBAN AREAS COULD FLOOD AS
WELL.
- A PERIOD OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SNE MONDAY NIGHT.
- MAINLY DRY AND TRENDING COLDER TUE INTO WED, THEN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI.
- PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRI NIGHT AND/OR SAT WITH
A TREND TO DRIER/CHILLIER WEATHER SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT, MAY LEAD TO SOME RIVER AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. POOR DRAINAGE IN URBAN AREAS COULD FLOOD AS WELL.
THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM WILL POSE TWO HAZARDS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, THE FIRST OF WHICH WE'LL ADDRESS IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN, FLOODING, AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL DIRECT A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT WHILE STRONG DYNAMICS BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL TOGETHER BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ON MONDAY SNE WILL BE PLACED IN THE WARM SECTOR FEATURING
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE LOW 60S AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
UPPER 50S! WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE
TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS GIVEN 200-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE. THESE WOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL AS THUNDER. IT
SHOULD FEEL LIKE A TRUE SPRING DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE LOCATIONS
THAT MAKE IT INTO THE 60S. RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, COMING TO A HEAD WITH A POTENTIAL FINE LINE OF
CONVECTION (DEPICTED IN MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5AM. ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE (PWATS NEAR 1.5" OR 3-4 SD ABOVE
NORMAL) COMBINED WITH SIMILARLY ANOMOLOUS JET DYNAMICS (80-90KTS AT
925MB) WILL SQUEEZE OUT A GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN, WIDESPREAD 2" LIKELY
WITH AS MUCH AS 3+" POSSIBLE UNDER ANY SOAKING T-STORMS. A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA, GIVEN RECENT SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH A DECENT RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RISES TO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING UNDER T-STORMS AS
WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A PERIOD OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SNE MONDAY NIGHT.
THE OTHER (AND LIKELY MORE IMPACTFUL) THREAT FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM
IS THAT THOSE IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE
AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING A ~6 HOUR WINDOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE WIND WILL BE
SCREAMING JUST OVERHEAD WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING AS MUCH AS 80-
90 KTS AT 925MB BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z. THE DIFFICULTY, AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EVENTS LIKE THIS, IS THAT WE'LL HAVE A
STOUT INVERSION IN PLACE TO ABOUT 950MB WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE
OVERCOME TO BRING THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS DOWN. THIS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET LATE MONDAY.
REGARDLESS, WINDS WILL RAMP UP ON MONDAY GUSTING 35-45 MPH. THE BEST
SHOT AT THE DAMAGING WINDS COMES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
ESPECIALLY IF THAT FINE LINE OF CONVECTION FORMS AND CAN HELP TO
DRAG THE STRONGEST GUSTS DOWN. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
RI AND EASTERN MA WHICH HAS THE BEST SHOT AT A ~3 WINDOW IN ANY
GIVEN LOCATION FOR DAMAGING GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH. BEST CASE SCENARIO
IF WE DON'T REACH THESE SPEEDS, GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE LIKELY SO
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MAINLY DRY AND TRENDING COLDER TUE INTO WED, THEN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION TUE MORNING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY SOME
MID MARCH SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CU TOO IN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A PASSING BRIEF
SPOT FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER. TUE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 25 TO 35 MPH...SO IT WILL FEEL COLDER. THE COLD AIR PEAKS
TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH 850T DROPPING TO BETWEEN -15C TO -18C. THIS
IS A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MARCH. LOW TEMPS
TUE NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW URBAN
CENTERS IN THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE. WIND CHILLS EARLY WED MORNING
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS! DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WED...HIGHS WILL BE HELD MAINLY IN THE 30S BUT WITH MUCH
LESS WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
AFTER A RATHER COLD START EARLY THU MORNING...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. HIGHS THU WILL STILL BE IN THE 40S...BUT
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 50S ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 4...PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRI NIGHT AND/OR
SAT WITH A TREND TO DRIER/CHILLIER WEATHER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
SOMETIME FRI NIGHT AND/OR SAT DEPENDING ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...THINK THINGS WILL TREND DRIER AND CHILLIER
SOMETIME SUN OR SUN NIGHT. QUITE THE WAYS OUT THOUGH SO THIS IS
CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z UPDATE...
THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
HAVE STARTED TO CREEP OVER THE REGION, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
IFR IN EXPANDING RA. WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, SHIFTING
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY, GUSTING 30-35 KTS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED TSRA IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY PARTICULARLY IN
CT AND RI.
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PEAK OF THE WINDS, GUSTING GUSTING 40-55KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. S
WINDS BECOME MORE SW AND W BY 12Z. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
07-12Z, ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. REGION CLEARS OUT BEHIND COLD FRONT. GUSTY W WINDS AROUND
25-30 KT ARE LEFT IN ITS WAKE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
FRIDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY
WINDS RAMP BACK UP TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY HEADED INTO TONIGHT, REACHING UP TO 15 FT AND EVEN
CLOSE TO 20 FT IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY 06Z TUESDAY. SEAS 7-10
FT WILL BE MORE COMMON IN THE EASTERN WATERS. WINDS WILL VERY
LIKELY REACH STORM CONDITIONS TONIGHT. STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
SEAS DECREASE TO AROUND 12 FT FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS OVER THE WATERS. W WINDS REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 35 KT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO
14 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 12 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MAZ002>022-026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR MAZ005>007-013>024.
RI...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ230-236.
STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
DISCUSSION...KJC/HRENCECIN
AVIATION...HRENCECIN
MARINE...HRENCECIN
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