273
FXUS61 KBOX 160536
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
136 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND RI.
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS TODAY,
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT, MAY LEAD TO RIVER AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. POOR DRAINAGE IN URBAN AREAS COULD FLOOD AS WELL.
- A PERIOD OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SNE TONIGHT.
- MAINLY DRY AND TRENDING COLDER TUE INTO WED, THEN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT, MAY LEAD TO SOME RIVER AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. POOR DRAINAGE IN URBAN AREAS COULD FLOOD
AS WELL.
A DEEPENING LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING, EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. STARTING
WITH THE RAIN AND FLOODING, A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING, ADVECTING IN WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. A
STRONG LLJ WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80-90 KT AT 925 MB WILL
ONLY REINFORCE THIS WAA; 925 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 10C-15C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE 60S TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. NAEFS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THE LAST FEW RUNS HAS ALSO SHOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IVT DURING THIS PERIOD, AROUND 6-8 SD ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO SHOW A
GOOD AMOUNT OF ELEVATED MUCAPE RANGING BETWEEN 200-600 J/KG WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN CT, RI, AND UP INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LLJ AT 925 MB WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
THAT COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINFALL WHERE ANY T-STORMS DEVELOP.
OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS, MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TOTALS WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE 2-3"
RANGE WITH LOCALIZED 4"+ POSSIBLE WHERE ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A PERIOD OF STRONG TO DAMAGING ACROSS SNE TONIGHT.
STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TONIGHT
ACROSS SNE AS ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. HI-
RES GUIDANCE INDICATING SOLID 80-90 KT LLJ AT 925 MB MOVING UP ALONG
THE SNE COAST 03-06Z THEN EXITING CAPE COD BY 09Z SO LOOKING AT
ABOUT A 3-4 HR WINDOW OF PEAK WINDS. THE CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH OF
THIS JET WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. HOW MILD IT GETS WILL BE A BIG FACTOR AND
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
WITH TEMPS 60F OR HIGHER. GIVEN THAT WE HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF
TEMPS NEAR 60F THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST, THESE MILD TEMPS SHOULD WEAKEN THE INVERSION ENOUGH FOR A
PERIOD OF DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO THERE IS QUITE A PRESSURE FALL RISE
COUPLET ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE WINDS
NEAR AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT WE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND
WATCHES TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR EASTERN MA AND RI WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF MAX LOW LEVEL WINDS.
POTENTIAL FOR 55-65 MPH GUSTS IN THIS AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
HREF MEAN WIND GUSTS. LOW RISK FOR A GUST TO 70 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN
RI AND SE MA. KEPT THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF SNE FOR A
PERIOD OF 45-55 MPH GUSTS. STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE
ACROSS CT AND ADJACENT AREAS OF CENTRAL MA WHERE A FEW 55-60 MPH
GUST ARE POSSIBLE.
HI-RES CAMS DO SHOW A ROBUST FINE LINE TO THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND AND EARLY EVENING WHERE THERE IS MODEST SURFACE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER, THIS FINE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SNE
LATER TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY HERE IS ELEVATED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER THE CAMS ARE SHOWING NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MAINLY DRY AND TRENDING COLDER TUE INTO WED, THEN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUE WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT
SOME DIURNAL CU AS WELL AS COOLING TEMPS ALOFT MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WHICH WILL SUPPORT GUSTY W WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S, WITH 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS 850 MB
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT -15 TO -18C AROUND 12Z WED. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE 30S ON WED.
WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE DIMINISHING LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. STILL THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. TEMPS MODERATE THU AND
ESPECIALLY FRI AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 4...UNSETTLED PATTERN FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT TIMES.
FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL BE ROTATING SE TOWARD NEW ENG.
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE SHORTWAVES ARE NOT CERTAIN SO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS BUT IT DOES APPEAR NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE
STARTED TO CREEP OVER THE REGION, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
IFR IN EXPANDING RA. WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, SHIFTING TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY, GUSTING 30-35 KTS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED TSRA IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY PARTICULARLY IN CT AND RI.
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PEAK OF THE WINDS, GUSTING GUSTING 40-55KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. S
WINDS BECOME MORE SW AND W BY 12Z. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH 07-12Z,
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. REGION CLEARS OUT BEHIND COLD FRONT. GUSTY W WINDS AROUND 25-30
KT ARE LEFT IN ITS WAKE.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY
WINDS RAMP BACK UP TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY HEADED
INTO TONIGHT, REACHING UP TO 15 FT AND EVEN CLOSE TO 20 FT IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS BY 06Z TUESDAY. SEAS 7-10 FT WILL BE MORE COMMON IN
THE EASTERN WATERS. WINDS WILL VERY LIKELY REACH STORM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
SEAS DECREASE TO AROUND 12 FT FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
OVER THE WATERS. W WINDS REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 35 KT THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 12 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MAZ002>022-026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR MAZ005>007-013>024.
RI...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ230-236.
STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
DISCUSSION...KJC/HRENCECIN
AVIATION...HRENCECIN
MARINE...HRENCECIN
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