257
FXUS61 KBOX 300713
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
313 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WARM WEDNESDAY BUT THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF 70 DEGREE OR GREATER
TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATES
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TODAY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
- INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A
CHANCE FOR LOW TO MID 70S HIGHS. STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
- FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WEATHER ON
NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TODAY AWAY FROM
THE SOUTH COAST.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OUR SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY, ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TO LIMIT SUNSHINE AT
TIMES. IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER BREEZY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
AS A 40-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THIS JET IS ABOVE A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION, WHICH WILL PREVENT THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN EFFICIENTLY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWED A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF 25-35
MPH GUSTS OVER LAND.
EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BE HIGHER TODAY. IN
COLLABORATION WITH MA FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS, WILL CONTINUE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO RAISE AWARENESS OF SOME DRIER
FUELS DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
MAY REACH THE NORTHERN MA BORDER BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED
SW FLOW AND ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO OUR REGION
WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING, AND CAN'T RULE OUT
PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS HIGHER
HUMIDITY MOVES IN. CLOUD COVER AND SW FLOW WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND OUR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE MARCH.
THIS FRONT LINGERS INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING MOST OF OUR REGION
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FOR ALL AREAS THOUGH, BUT WEAKER
FORCING (BETTER TO OUR NORTH AND WEST). A MODEST INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT PROBABLY FAVORS VERY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE. CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THE IDEA OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CREEPING PAST THE BERKSHIRES FROM NY STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PEAKS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHS. STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE QUITE A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS HONED IN ON THE CHANCE FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS (WIDESPREAD 60S INSTEAD OF 70S). STILL, WITH 925MB
TEMPS AS HIGH AS +15C, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
70S IN SOME OF THE USUALLY WARMER SPOTS (CT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS). MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY WARM INTO 60S/LOW 70S AWAY FROM
THE SOUTH COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE KEPT COOLER IN THE 50S/LOWER
60S GIVEN SW WINDS OFF THE WATER. HOW WARM WE ULTIMATELY GET
WILL DEPEND ON THE STILL-UNCLEAR TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD. FRONT ALSO BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SHOWERS, BUT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER BASED ON NARROW CAPE PROFILES WITH SURFACE-
BASED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. FRONT SHOULD HAVE MADE IT INTO THE
SOUTHERN WATERS BY OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPS ON THE DOWNSWING INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 4...FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
WEATHER ON NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HEIGHTS BUILD TO >570DM LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WE WON'T FEEL THE IMPACTS FROM THESE
BUILDING HEIGHTS AT THE SURFACE, HOWEVER, AS THE LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND STILL APPEARS COOLER, OVERCAST AND RAW. INCREASING NE
WINDS PUSHES A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN QUITE WARM UNDER SWLY 850-500 MB FLOW WITH
925 MB TEMPS AROUND +2 TO +8C. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS MINIMAL NOW, THIS STRONG INVERSION WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND LIKELY LEAD TO
A PRETTY RAW DAY ON THURS. NBM TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY TOO OPTIMISTIC FOLLOWING ITS TYPICAL
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE, AND THAT'S VERY PROBABLY NOT
APPROPRIATE GIVEN OVERCAST AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS. PLENTY OF
ROOM TO GO LOWER ON TEMPS IN FUTURE UPDATES BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH NE WINDS THURS AROUND
10-15 MPH. TEMPS PROBABLY NOT GOING VERY FAR EITHER THURS NIGHT
OR FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S, WITH A BETTER SHOT AT
WIDESPREAD RAIN FRI AS A COOL FRONT MOVES IN FROM NY.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS LIKELY BRINGS A
REINFORCING SHOT COOLER TEMPS SATURDAY. MAY SEE SOME RELIEF
FROM THE COOLER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY, BUT
THAT MAY COME AT THE COST OF SOME SHOWERS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME SW AND INCREASING
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LLWS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR-IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING, FIRST OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS
DURING THE EVENING THEN EXPANDING INLAND OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF LOWER
CIGS AND AREAS EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN. A FEW SHOWERS OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR WITH SCATTERED RAINFALL. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE RA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
BREEZY. CHANCE RA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
PERSISTENT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET, AS WELL AS THE OUTER RI COASTAL WATERS, BUT THINK A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS MORE APPROPRIATE. WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT STILL EXPECTING ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 13 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 12 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP
TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/FT
AVIATION...BELK/FT
MARINE...BELK/FT
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