487
FXUS61 KBOX 301902
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
302 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POSSIBLE T-STORMS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY. WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE AROUND
MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL RAIN CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
T-STORM LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
- SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS SNE ON TUE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AND TUE
EVENING.
- WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LEADS TO
A TEMPERATURE ROLLER-COASTER STARTING WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
TO GO ALONG WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.
- INCREASING FLOWS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RAIN WITH SOME SNOWMELT MOVES
DOWNRIVER FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE FLOWS COULD CAUSE
RISES INTO FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED T-STORM LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH SNE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE PASSSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LEADING TO A MODEST INSTABILITY
BURST AS NOTED BY SWI/KI/TT FIELDS. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING THOUGH SNE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING. WHILE THE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WIDESPREAD AND
IMPACT ALL AREAS, SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AND CAN'T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR SOME
WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS SNE ON TUE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AND
TUE EVENING
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO SNE TUE. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NE MA LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST IT GETS DURING THE
DAY WHICH WILL MAKE TEMP FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT AS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE UP TO A 30F TEMP GRADIENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WE EXPECT
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S OVER NE MA IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 70S WILL BE ACROSS LOWER CT
VALLEY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN BETWEEN BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
LIMIT HOW WARM IT GETS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
WE EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE INTERIOR. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE NY IN THE AFTERNOON AND A FEW SHOWERS OR T-
STORMS MAY SPILL INTO WESTERN MA/CT LATE DAY AND EVENING. SOME OF
THE MACHINE LEARNING PROBS ARE INDICATING A LOW SEVERE WX RISK IN
WESTERN NEW ENG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE AND
WIND FIELD AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ROBUST. INSTABILITY IS THE
LIMITING FACTOR AS FORECAST CAPES ARE NEAR 500 J/KG AND WEAKENING IN
THE EVENING SO MAX UPDRAFT FORECASTS ARE UNDERWHELMING. SOMETHING TO
MONITOR TOMORROW IN CASE INSITABILITY OVERACHIEVES BUT AT THIS TIME
THE RISK FOR SEVERE IS LOW AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LEADS TO A TEMPERATURE ROLLER-COASTER STARTING WED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, TO GO ALONG WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WAFFLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER FROM MIDWEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE CAN SAY IT IS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN, VARIATION IN THE FRONT'S POSITION DAY-TO-DAY RENDERS A
LOWER-CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON BOTH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THE TIMING
OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY, ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE MILD, WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 60S
AND A FEW SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S.
IT LOOKS QUITE A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COASTS IN NORTHEAST MA AND
FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXACTLY HOW WARM WE GET WILL HINGE ON
THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT; IF IT
LIES FURTHER TO THE NORTH THERE'S A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE AREAS
TO SEE HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO SUGGEST THE FRONT LIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHICH
WOULD OFFER SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THOUGH THE RISK FOR THUNDER IS MORE THE
EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.
WE THEN HIT THE TROUGH IN THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER-COASTER ON
THURSDAY, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE REMAINED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO ALLOW FOR SHALLOW COLD AIR FROM A 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEAST ME TO ADVECT IN ON A STIFF ONSHORE WIND; NOT TO
MENTION AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THAT WILL BE STUBBORN TO
SHAKE FREE OF UNDERNEATH VERY MILD TEMPS AT 925-850 MB. HIGHS
COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 40S WITH NARROW DIURNAL RANGES.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE TOO, IN WHAT
LOOKS BE A DREARY, RAW DAY.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY, BRINGING RETURNING
MILDER TEMPS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINS
AGAIN TAKES PLACE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY THEN
SEES A POTENTIAL RETURN TO COOLER ONSHORE FLOW BEFORE REBOUNDING
BACK AGAIN INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4...INCREASING FLOWS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RAIN AND SOME SNOWMELT MOVE
DOWNRIVER FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE FLOWS COULD CAUSE
RISES INTO FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
GENERALLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WPC'S LATEST 7-DAY QPF FORECAST IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOWS AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF QPF IN NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. A COMBO OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT IN THE UPPER
HEADWATERS OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER IN NH/VT WILL LEAD TO RISES
AS THAT ADDED FLOW MOVES DOWNRIVER INTO THE MA/CT PORTION OF THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER. WHILE CURRENT FLOWS ARE AT BASEFLOW LEVELS,
LATEST HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FROM THE NAEFS SUGGEST
SEVERAL GAGED FORECAST POINTS ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
(NORTHHAMPTON, THOMPSONVILLE, HARTFORD AND TIDE-INFLUENCED
MIDDLE HADDAM) SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE RISES MID TO LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY TO OVER BANKFULL. IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN WHEN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER SPECIFICALLY WILL
START TO RISE AND WHAT THE CREST FLOWS WILL LOOK LIKE, AS THESE
ARE SENSITIVE TO BOTH LOCAL AND UPSTREAM QPF INPUTS AS WELL AS
HOW MUCH SNOWMELT DRAINS INTO THE RIVER HEADWATERS (AT LEAST
2-3" OF SWE IS NOTED PER NOHRSC ANALYSES). WE'RE NOT IN THE
RANGE OF NERFC RIVER FORECASTS AS OF YET BUT THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR RISES WHICH COULD PROMPT RIVER FLOOD WARNING(S) ON
PORTIONS OF THE CT RIVER LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z UPDATE...
THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT. AREAS OF LLWS.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR THIS EVENING, THEN CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP AND MOVE THOUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND AN ISOLATED
T-STORM POSSIBLE. IMPROVING TO MVFR-VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT TONIGHT, THEN SW
GUSTS TO 25 KT REDEVELOPING TUE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. WINDS
SHIFTING TO N-NE ACROSS NE HALF OF SNE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR, BUT AREAS OF MVFR-IFR MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF LOWER CIGS.
BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING BACK TO SW IN AREAS WITH A N-NE WIND. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CAN'T RULE OUT AN
ISOLD T-STORM LATE TONIGHT OR TUE MORNING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CAN'T RULE OUT AN
ISOLD T-STORM LATE TONIGHT OR TUE MORNING.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA
LIKELY, ISOLATED TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: BREEZY. CHANCE RA, CHANCE FZRA.
FRIDAY: BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: BREEZY. CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY: BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
PERSISTENT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET, AS WELL AS THE OUTER RI COASTAL WATERS, BUT THINK A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS MORE APPROPRIATE. WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT STILL EXPECTING ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 12 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE
OF RAIN.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
DISCUSSION...KJC/LOCONTO
AVIATION...KJC
MARINE...KJC
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