714
FXUS61 KBOX 020506
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
106 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. DRIER AND COOL
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MUCH COOLER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
BACKDOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NE MA WITH WIND SHIFT TO N-NE AND A
SHARP TEMP DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS SNE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SHARPLY FALLING TEMPS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED T-STORM
ACROSS EASTERN CT-RI AND SE MA WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP.
THE FRONT WILL SET UP SOUTH OF NEW ENG TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE MARITIMES. LOW LEVEL E-NE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT INTO THU WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S LATE
TONIGHT WITH MINIMAL RECOVERY ON THU WITH HIGHS UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. MEANWHILE SW FLOW ALOFT OVERRIDING THE COOL AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
THU. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS TO THE NORTH. BUT STILL DREARY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE. 925 MB TEMPS DROP TO 0
TO -2C ACROSS NORTHERN MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THU SO THE RAIN MAY MIX
WITH SLEET HERE AT TIMES BUT NO IMPACT EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
0.25 TO 0.50" EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH.
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT
BUT REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE WITH TEMPS REMAINING STEADY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A LOW
RISK FOR LOCALIZED POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VT/NH BORDERS WHERE TEMPS MAY DROP CLOSE TO
32F.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
DRIER AND COOL NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THE PATTERN FLIPS AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE RETURN OF WARM, MOIST SOUTH
WESTERLY FLOW PUMPING TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE 60S (LOW 50S
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THANKS TO COOL ONSHORE FLOW). A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY BUT MOST WILL BE DRY. IT'S A BRIEF WARM UP AS
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING THE
RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A RENEWED CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT STALLS. THIS ALL THEN REPEATS ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH A BRIEF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY A MORE ROBUST
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP, BUT A LATER
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD LOOKS MOST LIKELY. MOISTURE PARAMETERS
ARE BETTER WITH THIS ROUND (PWATS OVER 1.25") AND EPS/GEFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATE A 20-40% CHANCE OF RAINFALL TOTALS AOA 0.5".
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVERHEAD AND SO WHILE
WE SHOULD DRY OUT, A SEASONABLE TO COOLER THAN NORMAL STRETCH LOOKS
ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
E/NE WINDS PREVAIL AS BACKDOOR FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD EXIT REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON, LEAVING PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. MVFR/IFR SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, BUT ADMITTEDLY
CONFIDENCE IN ITS TIMING AND EXTENT REMAINS LOW. NOT SEEING A
LOT OF LOWER CONDITIONS UPSTREAM SO FAR BUT EVENTUALLY CEILINGS
SHOULD COME DOWN, PERHAPS NOT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST. MAY SEE
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN IN PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY WITH VFR CEILINGS BY
AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES
AROUND TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS TO IFR AND HOW LONG IT PERSISTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES
AROUND TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS TO IFR AND HOW LONG IT PERSISTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. SHRA LIKELY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: BREEZY. SHRA LIKELY.
MONDAY: BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU NIGHT.
SCAS EXPANDED ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY TONIGHT INTO THU FOR NE GUSTS TO 25 KT.
DIMINISHING E WINDS THU NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO
3 NM.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...KJC/BW
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...KJC
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