710
FXUS61 KBOX 031207
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
807 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD WEATHER RETURNS FOR TODAY, BUT ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
BRINGS A RETURN TO COLDER AIR LATER SATURDAY.
- EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
- COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILD WEATHER RETURNS FOR TODAY, BUT ANOTHER
BACKDOOR FRONT BRINGS A RETURN TO COLDER AIR LATER SATURDAY.
THE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT HAS BROUGHT THE CHILLY AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FAR NORTH OF THE REGION BUT
PULLS A WARM FRONT UP ACROSS THE REGION. ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE IS A DECENTLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET (UP AROUND
2000-4000 FT ABOVE GROUND) WITH 40-50KT OF WIND. LUCKILY THERE
IS A STOUT INVERSION JUST BELOW THAT LEVEL, SO IT WILL PRECLUDE
MOST OF THOSE STRONG WINDS BEING ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE
(HOWEVER GUSTS OF 20-25MPH ARE STILL EXPECTED. THOSE WINDS ALOFT
WILL ALSO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR ALOFT, AND THAT WILL START TO
ERODE THE INVERSION FROM THE TOP. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW SKIES
TO TURN PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR BY THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE WELL INTO THE 60S IN
THOSE AREAS. IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT WEATHER REGIME ALONG SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS THOSE SAME MILDER
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG TO FORM
AS IT FLOWS OVER THE STILL VERY COLD WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS TO THE LOW 50S, AT BEST. TYPICAL
SPRING TIME WEATHER. SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH STARTS TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD. THIS IS AGAIN A
TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN THAT GIVES US THOSE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONTS. SO AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AGAIN,
THE COLD AIR OVER THE OCEAN SPREADS WESTWARD. THUS EASTERN
COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY REACH THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT NOON
AND THEN FALL QUICKLY AFTER THAT. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL EARLY
EVENING FOR THAT COLDER AIR TO GET INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SO
BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A 25F DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN HARTFORD (MID 60S) AND BOSTON (MID 40S). STUCK WITH THE
MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE,
BUT IF THE COLD AIR COMES IN LATER THAT MEANS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WILL BE WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SO THE
ERROR BARS ON THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SUNDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC, WITH BOTH WARM AND
COLD FRONTS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE'LL SEE A
SHORT-LIVED SURGE OF WARM, MOIST AIR IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
THE WARM FRONT, BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE WARM FRONT (PWATS ROUGHLY AROUND 1.0") WHICH COULD BRING
SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
MAIN EVENT. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATER SUNDAY, AND COMBINED WITH A 45-60KT LLJ AND
1.25-1.5" PWATS, SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER
COULD DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COULD SEE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECTING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
850MB TEMPERATURES COULD GET TO BELOW NEGATIVE 7C TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
MIXING IN WITH RAIN. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
LOOKS TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S, BUT TURN MILDER ON
THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR/LIFR THIS MORNING WITH -DZ IN A FEW SPOTS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER WITH THE EXACT TIMING, BUT SHOULD SEE A GENERAL TREND
TOWARD IMPROVING CONDITIONS (CEILINGS/VISBY) TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON (EXCEPTION OF CAPE/ISLAND TERMINALS). MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE 18-21Z, BUT THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY FOR IMPROVEMENTS AS EARLY AS 17Z. CAPE/ISLAND
TERMINALS LIKELY STAY IN LIFR THROUGH THE DAY. PVD IS ON THE
CUSP, BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.
SE WINDS THIS AM BECOME SSW THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUST 18-22 KTS. A LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES IN THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THIS
TIME WITH SOME MIXING (GUSTS), IT IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION OF WIND SHEAR, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING GIVEN
THE MINIMAL MIXING. WIND SHEAR DIMINISHES EARLY SAT AM.
LOWER CEILINGS RE-DEVELOP TONIGHT IFR/LIFR FOR SOUTH COAST/CAPE
& ISLANDS. MVFR POSSIBLE FOR BOS/ORH. WINDS TRANSITION TO NW.
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR FOR MOST. SOME LINGERING MVFR POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS SWING AROUND TO ENE SATURDAY. ENE
WINDS IN AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT:
TUESDAY: CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
1AM FRIDAY UPDATE. OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL BE TURNING FROM EASTERLY EARLY THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHWEST BY MID-DAY, AND THEN START TO INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE
FAR TO THE WEST APPROACHES. ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WINDS WILL START GUSTING AROUND 25KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NECESSARY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME ROUGH
SEAS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WATERS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CAPE AND ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. THIS FOG SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
ROUGH SEAS UP TO 11 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN/NASH
AVIATION...MCMINN/MENSCH/NASH
MARINE...NASH
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