243
FXUS61 KBOX 221914
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
314 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRENDED FORECAST DRIER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. BECOMING SUNNY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- DRY WEATHER TO GOVERN OUR WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. BECOMING SUNNY
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO PASS BY AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY,
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. THIS IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WITH THIS TROUGH, BUT THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AT THIS TIME,
FAVORING CLOUDY AND DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. KEPT THE MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS OUT OF THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND WEAK SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL, WHICH THEN LEADS
TO NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE THE SUN BREAKS OUT DURING
THURSDAY. DESPITE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY NEAR AVERAGE.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND LOWERING DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY. EXPECTING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS PROBABLY OVERLAP FOR
ONLY A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNDOWN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY WEATHER TO GOVERN OUR WEATHER PATTERN LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CLOSED-OFF UPPER CIRCULATION OVER THE MARITIMES ASSOCIATED WITH A
SLOW-TO-EVOLVE NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCKING REGIME WILL GOVERN OUR
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN BECOMES REPLACED BY
SHORTWAVE RIDGING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLDER POCKET OF AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AS SFC RIDGING
TAKES HOLD. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRIES TO BRING A PRECIP SHIELD
INTO FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
SAT INTO PART OF SUN, COMBO OF ANTECEDENT DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH MID-
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW FROM THE CLOSED LOW WOULD SEEM MORE LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS ANY PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. SO WHILE IT'S A GENERALLY
COOLER PERIOD, ALL-IN-ALL SHAPING UP TO BE A DRIER WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TOO, WITH INDICATIONS
FOR A WARMING TREND AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 00Z: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SPOTTY INTERMITTENT -SHRA WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR, ESPECIALLY WEST OF KLWM-KBED-KIJD, AND ACROSS RI AND
PORTIONS OF SE MA.
TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CEILINGS DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
PRE-DAWN THURSDAY HOURS. UNCERTAIN IF WE SEE AREAS OF MIST/FOG
BUT COULD BE POSSIBLE. WINDS GO LIGHT SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUB-VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE EARLY BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT/SCATTER
TO VFR BASES WITH WINDS BECOMING WSW 5-10 KT. WINDS THEN SHIFT
NW AND INCREASE TO 10-13 KT WITH GUSTS 22-25 KT LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OVC MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS WITH INTERMITTENT -SHRA THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z. ANY
SHOWERS THEN COME TO AN END, BUT WITH IT BRINGS BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. LOW RISK FOR IFR, BUT
NOT USUALLY THE CASE WITH S WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SE OVERNIGHT.
VFR FOR THURSDAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR EVENTUALLY
LOWERS TO IFR OVERNIGHT. VFR BY THE THURSDAY MORNING PUSH.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
COULD BE A FEW NEARSHORE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, BUT SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BELK/MCMINN
AVIATION...BELK/MCMINN
MARINE...BELK/MCMINN
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