172
FXUS61 KBOX 222328
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
728 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRENDED FORECAST DRIER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. BECOMING SUNNY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
EXCEPT A FEW LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY, WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. BECOMING SUNNY
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO PASS BY AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY,
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. THIS IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WITH THIS TROUGH, BUT THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AT THIS TIME,
FAVORING CLOUDY AND DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. KEPT THE MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS OUT OF THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND WEAK SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL, WHICH THEN LEADS
TO NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE THE SUN BREAKS OUT DURING
THURSDAY. DESPITE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY NEAR AVERAGE.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND LOWERING DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY. EXPECTING GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS PROBABLY OVERLAP FOR
ONLY A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNDOWN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT A FEW LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY,
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATES THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS 850MB
TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C THROUGH SUNDAY,
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO
HONE IN ON CHANCES FOR BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THE AIRMASS IS PROJECTED
TO REMAIN RATHER DRY.
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE HIGH
50S OR LOW 60S FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CEILINGS DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE PRE-DAWN THURSDAY HOURS. LIKELY BR, BUT UNCERTAIN IF WE'LL
GET LOW ENOUGH VISBY FOR FG. WINDS GO LIGHT SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUB-VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE EARLY BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT/SCATTER TO VFR BASES WITH WINDS BECOMING WSW 5-10 KT. WINDS
THEN SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO 10-13 KT WITH GUSTS 22-25 KT LATE
IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 7-12 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECTING CIGS TO
CONTINUE TO DROP TO LOW-END MVFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW RISK FOR
IFR, BUT NOT USUALLY THE CASE WITH S WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SE
OVERNIGHT. VFR FOR THURSDAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR EVENTUALLY
LOWERS TO IFR OVERNIGHT. VFR BY THE THURSDAY MORNING PUSH.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
COULD BE A FEW NEARSHORE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, BUT SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BELK/MCMINN
AVIATION...BELK/MCMINN
MARINE...BELK/MCMINN
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