595
FXUS61 KBOX 230553
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
153 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRENDED FORECAST DRIER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. BECOMING SUNNY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
EXCEPT A FEW LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY, WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. BECOMING SUNNY
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO PASS BY AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY,
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. THIS IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WITH THIS TROUGH, BUT THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AT THIS TIME,
FAVORING CLOUDY AND DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. KEPT THE MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS OUT OF THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND WEAK SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL, WHICH THEN LEADS
TO NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE THE SUN BREAKS OUT DURING
THURSDAY. DESPITE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY NEAR AVERAGE.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND LOWERING DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY. EXPECTING GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS PROBABLY OVERLAP FOR
ONLY A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNDOWN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT A FEW LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY,
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATES THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS 850MB
TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C THROUGH SUNDAY,
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO
HONE IN ON CHANCES FOR BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THE AIRMASS IS PROJECTED
TO REMAIN RATHER DRY.
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE HIGH
50S OR LOW 60S FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF/TRENDS BUT MODERATE
ON TIMING.
INITIAL MVFR CEILINGS, WITH IFR CEILINGS RESTRICTED TO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS AND ORH. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE
TOWARD AN MVFR-VFR BETWEEN 09-12Z AT LEAST FOR SITES NEAR/NORTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. VISBY REDUCTIONS FROM MIST NOW LOOKS
UNLIKELY. S WINDS 5-10 KT, THOUGH BECOMING LIGHT SW TOWARD 12Z
THURS.
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF/TRENDS BUT MODERATE ON TIMING.
LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER AND LIFT THIS
MORNING TO FULL VFR WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE
13-17Z TIMEFRAME FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VFR UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BUT IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10-13 KT WITH GUSTS 23-28 KT.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DECREASING TRENDS TO NW WINDS, TO 5 KT OR LESS BY
OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR SHOULD PREDOMINATE; A LOW PROBABILITY OF LOWER-VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS FRI LATE MORNING/NOONTIME NEAR THE EAST MA COAST AS
MODEST ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS, WITH ENE/ESE
WINDS 5-10 KT DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 11-12Z. SSW WINDS AROUND 5 KT THEN
SHIFT TO NW AND BECOME GUSTY BY 14-15Z, WITH SPEEDS AROUND
13-15 KT WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 09-10Z. S WINDS AROUND 5 KT SHIFT TO
NNW AROUND 13-14Z AND INCREASE TO 10-13 KT WITH GUSTS 22-25 KT.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
COULD BE A FEW NEARSHORE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, BUT SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...MCMINN
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