821
FXUS61 KBOX 262253
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
653 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO START MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
- DRY AND CLEAR MONDAY
- INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN FROM THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MORE ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS TO REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW
OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. CLOUDS HAVE
ALREADY CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA, CT, AND PARTS
OF RI WITH SOME DIURNAL CU POPPING UP IN ITS WAKE. THIS WIDESPREAD
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, REACHING THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS LAST. SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH
THIS EVENING THERE, THOUGH THE CHANCE IS DECREASING AS TIME GOES ON.
CLOUD COVER THERE MAY LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL PLAY A PART
IN INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE. ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND, THIS CLEARING WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS ALREADY RELATIVELY LIGHT
E TO ENE WINDS MAY GO CALM. SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY TONIGHT IN SPOTS LIKE ORANGE AND NORWOOD, BUT THE CHANCE
IS QUITE LOW GIVEN HOW DRY IT IS. THE DRYNESS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWS
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S, WITH
SPOTS THAT RADIATE MORE FALLING MORE TO THE MID 30S. SPOTS ON THE
UPPER CAPE COULD ALSO GET TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHILE THE REST OF
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS CAN EXPECT LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
BREEZES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY AND CLEAR MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE FULLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVERHEAD MONDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, AND WITH THE
LOW LINGERING OFFSHORE SW, LIGHT NE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
THESE ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS ACROSS
EASTERN MA COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE REGION DESPITE THE CLEAR
SKIES OVERHEAD; HIGHS ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE
WITH NE WINDS BEING SLIGHTLY BREEZIER THERE. FURTHER INLAND, 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO CLIMB TO AROUND 10C. THIS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S WITH THE CT VALLEY POSSIBLY
REACHING 70F.
KEY MESSAGE 3...INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN FROM THE OCEAN
WATERS TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MORE ACTIVE/UNSETTLED
WEATHER DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL.
TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATING FEATURE TO START WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING. EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES TO START,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND RI WHERE INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS PULL IN
COOLER AIR OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST WHILE THE CT VALLEY REMAINS IN THE UPPER 60S.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO A MORE
UNSETTLED PERIOD. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, MOISTURE IS
PULLED BACK AROUND THE LOW OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE, MOIST FLOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TO EASTERN MA/RI AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY EVENING, LINGERING INTO AND EXPANDING ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MORE ROBUST ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THEN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING ARRIVES WITH A
DEEP TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE SURFACE LOW
INITIALLY OVER PA ON WEDNESDAY PRODUCES A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT THEN CROSSES SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SNE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS GENERATES A 30-45KT LLJ WHICH TOGETHER WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT, MID LEVEL PVA, AND PWATS NEAR 1" WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH AS LATE AS MID DAY FRIDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS,
THOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL AND WHEN. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF 1" INCH OF RAIN HAVE
INCREASED TO THE 40-60% RANGE. TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, NO BIG WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON TAP BUT THE LINGERING TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL
RAIN/GRAUPEL SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY
LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS IS
POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE IS LOW AS IT IS
VERY DRY. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT FOR MOST. LIGHT NE BREEZES MAY
CONTINUE OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT, HELPING MITIGATE
RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS PICK BACK UP LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
REMAINING ENE AT 5-10 KT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KT. NE WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT, BECOMING CALM IN SOME
AREAS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. SHRA LIKELY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
OVER THE WATERS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. HIGHEST WINDS THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND OCEAN
WATERS, GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20
KT MORE LIKELY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS.
NE WINDS START TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY NEAR AND
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 20-25 KT IN GUSTS MONDAY MORNING, SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING 8 AM MONDAY. ELSEWHERE,
NE/N WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FURTHER OFFSHORE.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, SEAS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING TO AROUND 4-6 FT
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS
OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. RAIN
SHOWERS LIKELY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...BW/HRENCECIN
AVIATION...BW/HRENCECIN
MARINE...BW/HRENCECIN
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