289
FXUS61 KBOX 101815
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING 4-6
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE, INCREASED
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
MASSACHUSETTS.
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVE
WAY TO A DRY AND COOL STRETCH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. THEN DRIER AND
TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVE WAY TO A DRY AND COOL STRETCH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORKWEEK.
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE AFTER
SUNSET AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL NW
OF I-95. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
MAINLY SE OF I-95 AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PROVIDES ADDITIONAL LIFT
ALONG A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE OFFSHORE BY MONDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE CAPE AND ISLAND AROUND SUNRISE. LOOKING AT A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, WITH A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE AT ELEVATION. ELSEWHERE,
LOWS WILL BE NEAR 50 NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE FRONT LIKELY WONT PASS
THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON TREND 8 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER AS 850 MB
TEMPS CRASH TO NEAR 0C, RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY COOLER FEEL. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HEIGHTS
BUILD TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SETS US UP FOR A DRY DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLOUDLESS SKY. DESPITE FULL SUN, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES AS 850 MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -1C, OR ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. THEN DRIER AND
TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEKEND.
FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GT LAKES WED THEN
INTO THE NE AND NEW ENG THU INTO FRI. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO SNE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE
AS MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.
WHILE BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE WED NIGHT INTO THU, SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WED AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST BUT
TIMING ONSET IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT SHOULD BE A BENEFICIAL SOAKING RAIN WITH AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 0.50"-1.00". IT BEGINS TO DRY OUT BY THU NIGHT BUT UPPER
TROUGH AND COLD POOL LINGERS ON FRI WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A
FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT A WASHOUT. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WED AND THU RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRI.
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT
AND HEIGHT RISE. WE ARE EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 70S BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE MAY BE A
FEW QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES TO CONTEND WITH. OVERALL, LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF -RA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINKS UP WITH COASTAL MOISTURE AND BRINGS MVFR
CEILINGS AND OFF-AND-ON PERIODS OF -RA TO PVD/UUU AND SOUTHEAST
MA. -RA COULD BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS BED TO ORH
BUT IS VIEWED AS UNLIKELY, WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS FOR THESE
AND THE REST OF THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
MOST OF THE EVENING. SW/W WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT TO TURN TO NW
WINDS AROUND 10 KT LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SHRA MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN RI, THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA, CAPE COD, AND THE ISLANDS. WNW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
INTRODUCED A PROB30 FOR -SHRA FROM 21-00Z THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
VFR FOR TONIGHT WITH W TO NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
CONDITIONS TREND DRY BUT WITH VFR CLOUDINESS TONIGHT, AS WINDS
BECOME NW AROUND 10 KT.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SWELLS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH
AN SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH 8AM MONDAY MORNING. WINDS N-NW
TONIGHT, CONTINUING INTO MONDAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO NANTUCKET. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS CALMER WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...KJC/FT
AVIATION...FT
MARINE...FT
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