500
FXUS61 KBOX 121845
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
245 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND GUST FORECAST HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR NEARSHORE
WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED PATTERN MID TO LATE WEEK BRINING WIND AND RAIN.
- UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED PATTERN MID TO LATE WEEK BRINING WIND AND
RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ALOFT, A TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWS DOWN AS IT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS AIDS
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, WHICH WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME INTERACTION WITH A PASSING OFFSHORE LOW.
IN TERMS OF WEATHER, THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD WET
CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS,
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OVERALL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
GUSTS WERE ADJUSTED ABOVE THE NBM FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
MIXING AND LLJ. EVEN IF THE LESSER MIXED NAM IS CORRECT, GUSTS COULD
STILL PEAK AT 30 TO 35 MPH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH MIXING IN
A SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BUMP UP FORECAST.
A GOOD SOAKING RAIN OVER A 24+ HOUR PERIOD IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN AREAS. GIVEN THE COMPLEX INTERACTION
THERE IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THIS CAN BE
SEEN WITH THE LATEST NBM 10TH PERCENTILE QPF SHOWING ROUGHLY 0.25-
0.50 INCHES WHILE THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOWS OVER 2 INCHES. AT THIS
TIME THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPPER TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO POTENTIAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES, BUT OVERALL
TRENDS FAVOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY LOW- PROBABILITY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BY MONDAY,
AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST, SUPPORTING CONTINUED
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WNW WINDS 8 TO 12 KT. SEA BREEZE AT COASTAL TERMINALS INCLUDING
KBOS WILL KEEP WINDS SOUTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
WNW/W TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR EARLY. SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING.
CONDITIONS TREND TO MVFR WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH -RA.
WINDS S 10 TO 15 KT.
KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA, PATCHY BR.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA, PATCHY BR.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA, PATCHY BR.
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND WAVES INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ON ALL WATERS. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST, WHERE GUSTS COULD
PEAK AROUND 30 KT. GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20-25 KT FOR OPEN WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS, PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5
FT. RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, PATCHY FOG.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UNDER 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ230-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ231>237-254>256.
DISCUSSION...GUEST
AVIATION...GUEST
MARINE...GUEST
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