038
FXUS61 KBOX 140638
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
238 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THU INTO FRI, COOLING DOWN FRIDAY BEFORE
THE WEEKEND'S WARM-UP.
- DRY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THU INTO FRI, COOLING DOWN
FRIDAY BEFORE THE WEEKEND'S WARM-UP.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A 1004MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THAT LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY
NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND LED TO LIGHT SHOWERS
OUT AHEAD EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE CLEARED AND WE EXPECT
THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE THE REST OF THE DAY AS SOME MARGINALLY DRIER
AIR MOVES IN IN THE 850-600MB LAYER AND A LACK OF MUCH FORCING
BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY
AS THE WELL MIXED BL TAPS INTO A 35-40 KT 850MB JET OVERHEAD.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST IT SETS US UP FOR A
COOL AND WET THURSDAY (LINGERING INTO FRIDAY THANKS TO THE
AMPLIFIED, SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN). THIS PLACES SNE BENEATH A PLUME
OF ANOMOLOUS MOISTURE (PWATS OVER 1" ARE IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY). TOGETHER WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM STRONG PVA,
FAVORABLE PLACEMENT BENEATH A 300MB JET, AND CONVERGENCE IN THE MID
LEVELS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE REGION CAN EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. RAIN ARRIVES IN WESTERN SNE THURSDAY
MORNING, OVERSPREADING THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND ENDING IN THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS, ONE OVER THE WESTERN MA/CT HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO UPSLOPE
FLOW, AND ANOTHER OVER EASTERN MA ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY
LOW THAT LOOKS TO FORM BETWEEN THE PARENT LOW TO OUR NW AND
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY OVER THE ATLANTIC. FORTUNATELY,
GIVEN THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE RAIN, NOT EXPECTING FLOODING
TO BE A CONCERN. FINALLY, DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE, SO MAY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRIER AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST BUT THE
UPPER LOW LINGERS OVERHEAD. THIS TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED IN. SO, EXPECT A COOL,
CLOUDY, DAY WITH OFF AND ON LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE; MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO. THE UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS DOESN'T
CHANGE MUCH, SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, IN THE UPPER 50S (HIGH
ELEVATION) TO LOW 60S (CT VALLEY). THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT IN
EASTERN MA AND RI WHERE THAT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOW/MID 60S THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 50S ON
FRIDAY. THIS IS APPROACHING 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A PERSISTENT RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE EAST CONUS ON SATURDAY AND
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST THAT
WILL ADVECT WARM, MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH
LOW TO MID 80S POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S DURING THIS STRETCH. OVERALL A
WARM,DRY, AND QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER BETWEEN SATURDAY AND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR FOR BED-PVD EASTWARD, ALTHOUGH VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
WITH 5-6 SM VISBY LIGHT SHRA MAINLY BDL TO ORH STARTING 07-09Z.
S TO SE WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT, ON HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE IN
EASTERN MA/RI.
TODAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z, LOWEST CATEGORIES FOR BDL AND ORH WITH
RAIN WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISBY. MAINLY VFR SHOULD GOVERN
THE REST OF THE TAFS THRU THAT TIMEFRAME, OUTSIDE OF A
BRIEF/PASSING -SHRA. THE EXACT TIMING OF RAIN INTO EASTERN MA
AND RI IS UNCERTAIN, BUT THE RISK INCREASES FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VISBY SHRA/+SHRA IN THE 17-20Z TIMEFRAME FOR EASTERN MA
AND RI, MOVING GRADUALLY TO THE N/NE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
COULD BE POSSIBLE, WITH A LOW/OUTSIDE CHC AT TS.
SE WINDS AROUND 8-12 KT TO START, THEN SLOWLY BACK TO E THRU THE
AFTN, AND COULD BECOME LIGHT NE/N IN THE INTERIOR.
TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
STEADIER SHRA TAPERS OFF TO AN INTERMITTENT -SHRA OR EVEN -DZ
BY 00-03Z. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THEN DETERIORATE TO IFR TO LIFR
FOR MOST TAFS. MIST/FOG POSSIBLE TOO WITH IFR VISBYS. COASTAL NE
WINDS 5-10 KT, INTERIOR WINDS N/NW 5 KT OR LESS.
FRIDAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR GENERALLY PREVAILS, THOUGH SOME OPTIMISM FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TOWARD BDL LATE IN THE DAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT -SHRA OR -DZ, WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR STEADIER LIGHT RAIN FOR EASTERN/COASTAL MA. NE
WINDS BECOME N/NW AROUND 5-10 KT, THOUGH AROUND 10-12 KT FOR
EASTERN MA.
KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START, SE WINDS DEVELOPING
BY 10Z. OVC VFR (MVFR DECKS LURKING AROUND?) AS SOON AS 15Z, BUT
THINK MVFR CEILINGS STEADIER RAIN MORE LIKELY AFTER 17Z, WITH
IFR- VISBY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRA BY 20Z WITH WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY AROUND 10 KT. SHRA ENDS AROUND 02-03Z TO MORE OF A -DZ
BUT CEILINGS THEN GO TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AS WINDS BECOME NE.
KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR BECOMING MVFR IN SHRA BY 07-08Z.
SHRA CONTINUES THRU MOST OF THE DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS; RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO INTERMITTENT SHRA/DZ BY 00Z, BUT CEILINGS THEN GO
TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
2 AM UPDATE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS SNE TODAY, WITH LIGHT SW
EARLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT 25-30 KT IN GUSTS NEAR SHORE. HENCE, SCA REMAINS
POSTED. OTHER THAN A SPOT MORNING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MA WATERS,
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL TODAY. SOUTH WINDS SLACKEN TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ROUGH CONDITIONS THU, WITH S-SE WINDS 20-25
KT IN THE MORNING, THEN SLACKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME EAST AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO REGION THU, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
REDUCED VSBY.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW/RM
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...BW
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