442
FXUS61 KBOX 310624
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
224 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
- FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DOMINATED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS.
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT COULD BE
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM OR MORE DAMP WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN AND STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
ANOMALOUSLY POTENT LOW PRESSURE HAD FINALLY MOVED SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW
MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. EXPECTING RAINFALL TO ALSO END FROM NW
TO SE, PERHAPS TAKING AS LONG AS 8 PM TO CLEAR THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, TREND MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH PLENTY OF EARLY SUNSHINE. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DOMINATED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS.
SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE HASN'T CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 500MB OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN STUBBORNLY
REMAINING OVER CENTRAL CANADA, PUTTING NEW ENGLAND IN THE
EASTERN TROUGHING REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WEAK LOWS
TO SPIN UP AND MOVE THROUGH OR JUST NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
LEADING TO THE COOLER AIRMASS AND HIT-AND-MISS SHOWERY WEATHER
TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, IF NOT WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS POINT, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE EARLY
WEEK AS THE FIRST CLOSED LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WE'LL LIKELY SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO, WITH NO ONE AREA GUARANTEED TO REMAIN COMPLETELY
DRY. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS LOCKED INTO PLACE OVERHEAD AND
ONSHORE FLOW, AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, IN THE LOWER
60S ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN MA AND UP TO 70 ACROSS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT COULD BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM OR MORE DAMP WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION, WITH
INDICATIONS THAT A LOW COULD SPIN UP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. IF THIS IS THE
CASE, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE, INTO
THE MID 80S, CLOSE TO 90 IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. A FEW MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE LOW COULD PASS NORTH OF THE BENCHMARK, LEADING
TO MORE SHOWERY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL
ALMOST A FULL WEEK OUT, WITH PLENTY OF TIME FOR GUIDANCE TO COME
INTO BETTER CONSENSUS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS NW/NNW FOR MOST TERMINALS. LINGERING GUSTS 20-25 KTS FOR
HYA/ACK THROUGH 12Z.
SUNDAY...MODERATE (SHOWER CHANCES/TIMING AND SEA BREEZE)
VFR. GENERALLY A LIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT WINDS. POTENTIAL FOR
SE SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
LOWER CONFIDNECE. THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCLUDE AS
TEMPO, SO MESSAGED SHOWERS AS PROB30S FOR NOW. TIMING IS
MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW CHANCE FOR A WEAK ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. LIGHT W/WNW WINDS. ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS DIMINISH BY 04Z. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO PUSH IN AFTER 10Z FOR
THE EAST COAST/CAPE TERMINALS ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO MORE NE
FLOW.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
*DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TONIGHT*
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRINGING STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS, ROUGH SEAS, AND MODERATE RAIN TO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON.
NE WINDS COME AROUND TO NORTHERLY THIS EVENING INTO THE GALE-
FORCE RANGE, DECREASING FURTHER TONIGHT. STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST
OF THE WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE THERE ARE GALE WARNINGS. WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO DOWNGRADE THE STORM WARNINGS TO GALE WARNINGS SOME TIME
THIS EVENING.
HIGH WINDS AND BUILT UP SEAS WILL BRING HIGH SURF TO THE SURF
ZONES TODAY ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES. IF YOU ARE VENTURING
OUT TO THE BEACH, STAY A SAFE DISTANCE FOR JETTIES.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS
OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-
251-254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/MCMINN
AVIATION...MENSCH
MARINE...BELK/MCMINN
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