104
FXUS61 KBOX 312337
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
737 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. BECOMING DRIER OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- SPOT SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. BECOMING
DRIER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
COLD POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
CAN SEE A CASE WHERE THESE SHOWERS PERSIST LONGER PAST SUNSET
DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT, BUT THAT HAS A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRING. SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS, OR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, COULD GENERATE SOME GRAUPEL.
THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT, ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL BRING DRIER
WEATHER, BUT ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SPOT SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE 500MB BLOCKING PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY, BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL STUBBORNLY
REMAIN BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE HEIGHTS SLOWLY
INCREASE, TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE,
ROUGHLY A 5C INCREASE AT 850MB. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
LOCAL SEA BREEZES. COASTAL AREAS MAY END UP A BIT COOLER IN THE
UPPER 60S WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A QUICK-MOVING PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, RESULTING IN LOW-END CHANCES FOR A
POP-UP SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LATE WEEK RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY, GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION,
WITH INDICATIONS THAT A LOW COULD SPIN UP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
US COAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. IF THIS IS
THE CASE, THEN WE COULD SEE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH OF DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS,
INTO THE MID 80S, CLOSE TO 90 IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER,
SOME MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE LOW COULD PASS
NORTH OF THE BENCHMARK, LEADING TO MORE SHOWERY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS TO PUSH IN AFTER 06Z FOR THE EAST COAST/CAPE TERMINALS,
INCLUDING BOS. LIGHT NW FLOW THEN TURNS N-NE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS MONDAY BECOMING VARIABLE MONDAY NIGHT.
LOW END CHANCE (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) THAT SOME -SHRA DEVELOPS
AND MAKES IS AS FAR SOUTH AS BOS BEFORE THE MORNING. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO TAF AT THIS TIME.
KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. HIT-AND-MISS SHOWERS
REMAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH VERY LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. STRATUS DECK
TOWARDS THE MONDAY MORNING PUSH COULD HAVE LOWER BASES.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH
MONDAY, AND LESS THAN 10 KT MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTER NEARSHORE WATERS FROM YESTERDAY WILL TAKE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THESE
WATERS INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP
TO 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/MCMINN
AVIATION...BELK/MCMINN
MARINE...BELK/MCMINN
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