820
FXUS61 KBOX 010606
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
206 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. BECOMING DRIER OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- SPOT SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. BECOMING
DRIER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
COLD POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
CAN SEE A CASE WHERE THESE SHOWERS PERSIST LONGER PAST SUNSET
DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT, BUT THAT HAS A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRING. SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS, OR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, COULD GENERATE SOME GRAUPEL.
THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT, ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL BRING DRIER
WEATHER, BUT ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SPOT SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE 500MB BLOCKING PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY, BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL STUBBORNLY
REMAIN BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE HEIGHTS SLOWLY
INCREASE, TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE,
ROUGHLY A 5C INCREASE AT 850MB. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
LOCAL SEA BREEZES. COASTAL AREAS MAY END UP A BIT COOLER IN THE
UPPER 60S WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A QUICK-MOVING PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, RESULTING IN LOW-END CHANCES FOR A
POP-UP SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LATE WEEK RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY, GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION,
WITH INDICATIONS THAT A LOW COULD SPIN UP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
US COAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. IF THIS IS
THE CASE, THEN WE COULD SEE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH OF DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS,
INTO THE MID 80S, CLOSE TO 90 IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER,
SOME MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE LOW COULD PASS
NORTH OF THE BENCHMARK, LEADING TO MORE SHOWERY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LAST OF THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PUSH OUT OF PVD AND
CAPE AND ISLANDS BY 07Z. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO PUSH
INTO THE EAST TERMINALS AFTER 09Z WHEN FLOW TURNS NE. IT MAY
POTENTIAL SPREAD AS FAR AS ORH OR PVD, THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY IFR AT BOS AND CAPE AND ISLAND TERMINALS.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE (CIGS/TIMING OF IMPROVEMENTS).
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES
FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS, BUT COULD EXPAND AS FAR AS ORH.
PATCHY IFR POSSIBLE ALONG EAST COAST TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS LIKELY IMPROVING 15-18Z.
N TO NE WINDS AT 08-15 KTS, STRONGEST FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
PERIOD OF GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z-18Z MAINLY FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW CHANCE (< 10%) THAT AN ISOLATED -SHRA
DEVELOPS AND MAKES IS AS FAR SOUTH AS BOS BEFORE THE MORNING.
LOW CHANCE (< 10%) FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS MAINLY FROM THE W/WSW AND MORE N FOR THE CAPE
TERMINALS.
KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. HIT-AND-MISS SHOWERS
REMAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH VERY LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. STRATUS DECK
TOWARDS THE MONDAY MORNING PUSH COULD HAVE LOWER BASES.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH
MONDAY, AND LESS THAN 10 KT MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTER NEARSHORE WATERS FROM YESTERDAY WILL TAKE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THESE
WATERS INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP
TO 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254-
255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/MCMINN
AVIATION...MENSCH
MARINE...BELK/MCMINN
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