644
FXUS61 KBOX 011742
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
142 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY BEGINS A PATTERN OF STEADILY
CLIMBING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR LATE THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS
MORE LIKELY TO BE DRY AND WARM, BUT WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY BEGINS A PATTERN OF STEADILY CLIMBING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CLOUDCOVER OVER INLAND AREAS, AND EVEN SOME
DECENT POP-UP SHOWER COVERAGE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SNE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN WHEN SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR
SETTING UP FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. GIVEN BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT, THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS
GUIDANCE. WE'RE EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS, CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN CENTERS.
TUESDAY FEATURES A TRANSITION FROM THE BROADER TROUGH WE'VE DEALT
WITH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. AS SUCH,
WE EXPECT WARM ADVECTION AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO LEAD TO
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. THAT BEING SAID, A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EXITING TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO ONCE AGAIN
KICK OFF A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM GIVEN A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. EXPECT THE MOST SUN IN THE MORNING
BEFORE LOW LEVEL DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN
IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR LATE THIS WEEK.
CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY TO BE DRY AND WARM, BUT WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND.
MID LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK EXPECTED TO START BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW AT THAT POINT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
AMPLIFIED FOR AN EARLY METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HOW SHORT THIS BREAKDOWN PROCESS
WILL BE, WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL. THESE DETAILS MATTER, AND
WILL TAKE A MORE PROBABILISTIC APPROACH WITH THE FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY ON.
OVERALL, IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FINALLY EDGES MORE
INTO THE HIGHER HEIGHTS PART OF THE BLOCK AROUND WEDNESDAY, WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS MORE PROBLEMATIC.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE AFOREMENTIONED OMEGA BLOCK
BREAKS. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE REMAIN DRY FOR MOST
OF THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE ALSO ENOUGH SIGNALS WHERE A
MENTION OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS IS WARRANTED. A LOW PRESSURE
PASSING BY ALONG A NEARLY STALLED FRONT FOR SUNDAY IS A MORE
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SHOWERS. THIS FRONT COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY,
CONTINUING THE RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO LOWER SATURDAY, BUT THE COOLDOWN IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE MORE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NE WINDS 5-10 KTS BECOMING CALM THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NE 5-10 KTS FOR INLAND TERMINALS WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NE WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY, 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SW.
SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
BECOMING 1-3 FT OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY
APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP
TO 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BELK/BW/KP
AVIATION...BELK/BW/KP
MARINE...BELK/BW/KP
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