059
FXUS61 KBOX 021702
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
102 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
- POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...QUIET AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THIS WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. RIGHT
ON CUE FOLLOWING A COOL AND DAMP WEEKEND, WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, AS WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TODAY, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE PUSH EAST. WHILE PWATS ARE
QUITE LOW, THE COMBINATION OF MODEST MID-LEVEL LIFT, A COLD POOL
ALOFT, AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A BRIEF AND VERY
ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +8C,
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH INCREASING 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +13C AND
+15C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ALONE WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DESCENDING FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SHOULD
PROMOTE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DOWNSLOPING. THIS WILL LIKELY NUDGE
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S, PERHAPS NEAR 90 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY, WHERE PROBABILITIES
EXCEED 75 PERCENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND, FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS DUE TO
VARIABILITY AMONG GUIDANCE. THE BROAD THINKING REMAINS THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ADVECT ALOFT.
AS NOTED BY A PREVIOUS FORECASTER, THERE IS A CHANCE MUCH OF
SATURDAY REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS TO WARRANT
AT LEAST A MENTION OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PRESENTS A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SHOWERS. THIS FRONT COULD LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONTINUING AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SHOWERS.
THIS WILL CLEARLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH, AS WE APPEAR TO REMAIN IN
AN UNFORTUNATE PATTERN OF COOLER AND SOGGIER WEEKENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TRENDING COOLER SATURDAY,
THOUGH THE COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT), ISOLATED
SHOWER MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z-01Z, OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS PREVAIL,
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SEA BREEZE
REDEVELOPS WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 14 AND 16Z.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES THROUGH 23Z FOLLOWED
BY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE BETWEEN 14
AND 16Z WEDNESDAY.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IN GENERAL, CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SUPPORT
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WELL, THOUGH THERE IS
A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A POP-UP SHOWER MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT), OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS TODAY ARE GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO WARMER LAND TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE
ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS WATERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY, SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY
AVIATION...BW/FT
MARINE...DOOLEY
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