416
FXUS61 KBOX 021830
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
230 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
CONTINUED CONFIDENCE IN A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. KEPT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LARGELY
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE WORKING IN ON SCHEDULE.
STORY OF THE WEEK WILL BE INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREMENTALLY WARM TO BETWEEN +13C AND +15C BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ALONE WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DESCENDING FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SHOULD PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DOWNSLOPING. PROBABILITIES FOR >90 DEGREE HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT AS GUIDANCE
IS HONING IN ON MORE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. STILL, THE
LATEST HEAT RISK GUIDANCE SHOWS LEVEL 2/5 VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE VALUES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES THAT MAY
BECOME WARM ENOUGH TO AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, SUCH
AS THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE ACCESS TO COOLING AND HYDRATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONE DAY LATER, AND THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE NOT MUCH CLEARER. STILL NOTING TIMING
VARIABILITIES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
LOOKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND, FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS DUE TO
VARIABILITY AMONG GUIDANCE. THE BROAD THINKING REMAINS THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ADVECT ALOFT. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS MID
LEVEL TROUGH HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WHEN COMPARED TO ITS
INTERNATIONAL COUNTERPARTS. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
PROBABILISTIC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ALL THAT SAID, STILL THINKING THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COULD REMAIN DRY SATURDAY. NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA WOULD BE MOST AT
RISK FOR A LATER AFTERNOON SHOWER. INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH. FAVORING DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
MORE NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN, ALTHOUGH STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE,
IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT), ISOLATED
SHOWER MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z-01Z, OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS PREVAIL,
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SEA BREEZE
REDEVELOPS WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 14 AND 16Z.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES THROUGH 23Z FOLLOWED
BY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE BETWEEN 14
AND 16Z WEDNESDAY.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IN GENERAL, CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SUPPORT
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO WARMER LAND TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE
ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS WATERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SEAS OF
1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BELK/FT
AVIATION...BW/FT
MARINE...DOOLEY/FT
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