451
FXUS61 KBOX 022351
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
751 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
CONTINUED CONFIDENCE IN A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. KEPT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
LARGELY THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE WORKING IN ON
SCHEDULE.
STORY OF THE WEEK WILL BE INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREMENTALLY WARM TO BETWEEN +13C AND +15C BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ALONE WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DESCENDING FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS SHOULD PROMOTE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DOWNSLOPING.
PROBABILITIES FOR >90 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT AS GUIDANCE IS HONING IN ON MORE
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. STILL, THE LATEST HEAT RISK
GUIDANCE SHOWS LEVEL 2/5 VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THESE VALUES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES THAT MAY BECOME WARM
ENOUGH TO AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, SUCH AS THOSE
WITHOUT ADEQUATE ACCESS TO COOLING AND HYDRATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONE DAY LATER, AND THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE NOT MUCH CLEARER. STILL NOTING TIMING
VARIABILITIES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
LOOKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND, FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS DUE TO
VARIABILITY AMONG GUIDANCE. THE BROAD THINKING REMAINS THAT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL,
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ADVECT ALOFT. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH ITS MID LEVEL TROUGH HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WHEN
COMPARED TO ITS INTERNATIONAL COUNTERPARTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A PROBABILISTIC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
ALL THAT SAID, STILL THINKING THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COULD REMAIN DRY SATURDAY. NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA WOULD BE MOST
AT RISK FOR A LATER AFTERNOON SHOWER. INCREASING RISK FOR
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. FAVORING DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A MORE NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN, ALTHOUGH STILL NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE, IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT, LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS PREVAIL, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
SEA BREEZE REDEVELOPS WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 14 AND 16Z.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES THROUGH 02Z
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE
BETWEEN 14 AND 16Z WEDNESDAY.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IN GENERAL, CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SUPPORT
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO WARMER LAND TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE
ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS WATERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SEAS OF
1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BELK/FT
AVIATION...BELK/FT
MARINE...DOOLEY/FT
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