822
FXUS61 KBOX 031903
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
303 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES WITH TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
- UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES WITH TOLERABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GOVERN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND'S WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
FULL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH AN INCREASE
IN 925-850 MB TEMPS BOTH THURSDAY AND ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY, 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +13 TO +15C. THIS COMBO OF FULL SUN, SW FLOW
AND WARMING LOWER-ATMOSPHERIC TEMPS WILL BRING ABOUT A SPELL OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED
TO EARLY- JUNE CLIMATOLOGY. HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 80S (TO LOW 90S CT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS) TOMORROW AND UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S ON FRIDAY. THE
DRIER AIR AND LACK OF RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD SUPPORT
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. AT NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S. OTHER THAN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE MIXING
LOOKS MORE SHALLOW, MIXING SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD ON BOTH DAYS
AND THAT SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS TO AROUND TOLERABLE LEVELS
(E.G. DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S). OVERALL SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES BUT WITHOUT THE "STICKINESS" WE TEND TO SEE WITH
TEMPS THIS WARM. THAT'S REFLECTED IN THE HEAT INDICES, WHICH ARE
SIMILAR TO OR EVEN LOWER THAN THE AIR TEMPS. SW WINDS SHOULD
ALSO BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN-
COASTAL SEABREEZES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY
WILL FEATURES SHOWERS FOR MOST. DRIER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE STILL REMAINS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. ONE OF THESE IS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NY.
CONTINUE TO THINK THIS FRONT WILL ONLY REACH SOUTHERN NH/VT LATE IN
THE DAY SATURDAY. THAT SAID, STILL A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON JUST FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECTING
DRIER CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER SUNDAY,
BUT MONDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT INTERIOR SNE AIRPORTS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, WITH SEABREEZES ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COASTS, TRENDING TO SW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT PATCHY FOG OR STRATUS BRINGING LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS TO ACK BUT SEEMS TOO UNLIKELY FOR A TAF MENTION.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE, THOUGH MODERATE
ON SEABREEZE POTENTIAL.
VFR THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. SW WINDS AROUND 8-12 KT, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KT RESTRICTED TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
THINKING SW WINDS PREVAIL EVEN AT BOS AND PVD WHO ARE MORE
PRONE TO SEABREEZES, BUT IF WINDS CAN STAY LIGHT ENOUGH THEY
COULD BRIEFLY TURN ONSHORE/SE STARTING 16-17Z. WINDS REMAIN SW
5-10 KT OVERNIGHT.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZE TODAY TURNS SW AROUND
5-10 KT 23-00Z. SW WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY; THERE IS A WINDOW FOR A POSSIBLE SE SEABREEZE
AROUND 16-17Z BUT THINK SW WINDS PREVAIL MUCH OF THURSDAY.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SHRA LIKELY, CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SHRA LIKELY, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SW WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AT AROUND 10-15 KT AND
SHOULD RUN AROUND 15-20 KT THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SCA-LEVEL GUSTS AROUND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WATERS (BUZZARDS
BAY/VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET SOUNDS) WHICH TYPICALLY BLOW STRONGER
ON SW FLOW. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SATURDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BELK/LOCONTO
AVIATION...BELK/LOCONTO
MARINE...BELK/LOCONTO
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