589
FXUS61 KBOX 032343
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
743 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES WITH TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
- UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES WITH TOLERABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GOVERN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND'S WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
FULL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH AN
INCREASE IN 925-850 MB TEMPS BOTH THURSDAY AND ON FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY, 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +13 TO +15C. THIS COMBO OF
FULL SUN, SW FLOW AND WARMING LOWER-ATMOSPHERIC TEMPS WILL BRING
ABOUT A SPELL OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO EARLY- JUNE CLIMATOLOGY. HIGHS AWAY
FROM THE COAST SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 80S (TO LOW 90S
CT AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS) TOMORROW AND UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S
ON FRIDAY. THE DRIER AIR AND LACK OF RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
COULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. AT NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD DROP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. OTHER THAN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHERE MIXING LOOKS MORE SHALLOW, MIXING SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD ON
BOTH DAYS AND THAT SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS TO AROUND
TOLERABLE LEVELS (E.G. DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S). OVERALL
SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES BUT WITHOUT THE "STICKINESS" WE TEND TO
SEE WITH TEMPS THIS WARM. THAT'S REFLECTED IN THE HEAT INDICES,
WHICH ARE SIMILAR TO OR EVEN LOWER THAN THE AIR TEMPS. SW WINDS
SHOULD ALSO BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN- COASTAL SEABREEZES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
MOST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT
SUNDAY WILL FEATURES SHOWERS FOR MOST. DRIER WEATHER LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. ONE OF THESE IS THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
UPSTATE NY. CONTINUE TO THINK THIS FRONT WILL ONLY REACH
SOUTHERN NH/VT LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. THAT SAID, STILL A RISK
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
JUST FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.
EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH MONDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER
SUNDAY, BUT MONDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT INTERIOR SNE AIRPORTS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, WITH SEABREEZES ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COASTS, TRENDING TO SW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT PATCHY FOG OR STRATUS BRINGING LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS TO ACK BUT SEEMS TOO UNLIKELY FOR A TAF MENTION.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE, THOUGH MODERATE
ON SEABREEZE POTENTIAL.
VFR THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. SW WINDS AROUND 8-12 KT, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20-22 KT RESTRICTED TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THINKING
SW WINDS PREVAIL EVEN AT BOS AND PVD WHO ARE MORE PRONE TO
SEABREEZES, BUT IF WINDS CAN STAY LIGHT ENOUGH THEY COULD
BRIEFLY TURN ONSHORE/SE STARTING 16-17Z. WINDS REMAIN SW 5-10 KT
OVERNIGHT.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SW WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THERE IS A WINDOW FOR A
POSSIBLE SE SEABREEZE AROUND 16-21Z BUT THINK SW WINDS PREVAIL
MUCH OF THURSDAY.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SHRA LIKELY, CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SHRA LIKELY, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SW WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AT AROUND 10-15 KT AND
SHOULD RUN AROUND 15-20 KT THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS AROUND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
WATERS (BUZZARDS BAY/VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET SOUNDS) WHICH
TYPICALLY BLOW STRONGER ON SW FLOW. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ON ALL
WATERS.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SATURDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BELK/LOCONTO
AVIATION...BELK/LOCONTO
MARINE...BELK/LOCONTO
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