454
FXUS61 KBOX 091913
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
313 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES OTHERWISE.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PEAKING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- WARM CONDITIONS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS FOR
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND CONTINUES MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS RECEDING FROM THE NORTHEAST US.
SOME SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL THEN START TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE REGION AS ITS INFLUENCE WANES, WHICH WILL AID IN THE RETURN OF
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S AS LIGHT SW WINDS CONTINUE FOR MOST; WINDS TO 15 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
IT. WITH REGARDS TO SEVERITY, NOT SEEING MUCH THAT WOULD SCREAM A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE POSSIBLE STORMS. CSU ML GUIDANCE
HAS ABOUT A 5-15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WINDS IN WESTERN MA AND
CT, ALONG WITH PART OF CENTRAL MA FOR WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALSO SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HELPING BRING
IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. PWATS MAY APPROACH 2.0", AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT VALUES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAY
BE AROUND 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. DETAILS REGARDING
THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL NEED TO BE IRONED
OUT, BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS FAVORING THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS OVERHEAD,
SOME SPOTS WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT
MUCH CAN STILL CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND WHEN THIS FRONT COMES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME MAY ONLY REACH AROUND 0.10-0.20". HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PEAKING THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST USA WILL PUSH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK. WILL LIKELY NEED TO
CONSIDER HEAT HEADLINES WITH LATER FORECASTS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
FOR HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR WEST A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CAN MAKE IT
FRIDAY. THIS WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR HEAT HEADLINES ACROSS
EASTERN MA AS WELL AS RI. SHOULD THIS FRONT BE DELAYED FROM ITS
CURRENT TIMING, THEN MORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE AT RISK
FOR HEADLINES USING THE LOWER 2-DAY THRESHOLD.
PORTIONS OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY IN MA AND CT COULD SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100F, WHILE MORE OF OUR REGION SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE
90S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COASTAL AREAS OF MA AND RI ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COOLER FRIDAY, BUT THE TIMING STILL NEEDS TO BE
IRONED OUT.
THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS WEEK. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONCERN
FOR THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME DUE
TO THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS. THE WESTERN
HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WOULD HAVE THE HIGHER RISK, WHICH IS
NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WARM CONDITIONS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS
FOR SATURDAY, AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANTICIPATING THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE FRONTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY, WITH SUNDAY ANTICIPATED THE
DRIER OF THE TWO. LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY, BUT PLENTY OF
DRY HOURS TOO. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS INDICATED A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PASSING BY TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. KEPT A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. SOME MVFR TO
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS MAY OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. SHOWERS BECOME MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT
COVERAGE IS STILL RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN.
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BUT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER
NEAR THE UPPER CAPE/BUZZARDS BAY AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY, GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY MAKE A RETURN BY THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS. SW
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING WARM
FRONT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE SOUTHERN WATERS
WITH THE ELEVATED SW WINDS CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT,
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT EXPECTED MORE TOWARDS NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER WATERS NEAR
IT. WINDS SHIFT MORE SW THEN SSW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS REMAINING JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS MAY START TO CREEP TO 5 FT HEADING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>236.
DISCUSSION...BELK/HRENCECIN
AVIATION...BELK/HRENCECIN
MARINE...BELK/HRENCECIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page