373
FXUS61 KBOX 100807
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
407 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR INTERIOR MA AND NORTHERN
CT FROM NOON THURSDAY UNTIL 8PM FRIDAY. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE IN NATURE THURSDAY
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
- HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS INTERIOR MA AND
CT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND, WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SWEEP THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STILL SEEMS LOW, WITH THE
CSU ML PROBABILITIES REMAINING AT A 5-15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WIND ACROSS WESTERN MA AND CT. SIMILAR TRENDS ARE BEING
SEEN IN THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR NEURAL NETWORK, WITH HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR MA AND CT TONIGHT.
GIVEN WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, EXPECTING TO SEE
DEWPOINTS AND PWATS SURGE... THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING PWATS 1.9"-2.0" ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
WITH POCKETS OF UP TO 2.2" POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CT HEADING INTO THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY,
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE EXACTLY STORMS COULD INITIATE REMAINS ON
THE LOWER SIDE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH...
REGARDLESS, ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES FORM IS LIKELY TO BE HEAVY IN
NATURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS
INTERIOR MA AND CT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
POSE A RISK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE WARM FRONT FROM
WEDNESDAY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, PROLONGED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A SURGE OF VERY HOT AND HUMID AIR, ESPECIALLY AS 925MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO +27C THURSDAY AND UP TO +30C FRIDAY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR MA AND NORTHERN CT. THESE HIGH
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100F THURSDAY
AND LIKELY ABOVE 100F FRIDAY ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY,
PROMPTING HEAT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN CT AND
WESTERN MA FROM NOON THURSDAY UNTIL 8PM FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS BOTH DAYS. DEWPOINTS SURGING TO NEAR 70
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICIES IN THE LOW 90S, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE COASTAL PLAIN. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE EXPANDED FURTHER EAST;
HOWEVER, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO EASTERN
MA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT FRIDAY, BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR INLAND
THE FRONT WILL DROP. REGARDLESS, WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY, BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASED
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR ANYONE SPENDING EXTENDED TIME
OUTDOORS WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION OR ACCESS TO COOLING.
THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR HIGHER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL THAT SOME STORMS THURSDAY MAY BE SEVERE IN
NATURE. CSU ML PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED TO 15-30 PERCENT FOR
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL AND 5-15 PERCENT CHANCE TO SEE SMALL HAIL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF
1300+ J/KG THURSDAY EVENING, WITH POCKETS OF UP TO 2000 J/KG
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN CT... HOWEVER, THOSE HIGHER VALUES
ARE LIKELY TO RAPIDLY DECAY AS THEY PUSH EAST, WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO SHORT-LEVEL CELLS. REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO UPGRADE THE WESTERN PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FROM GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH DECREASING
HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
ANTICIPATING THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE FRONTS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY, WITH SUNDAY
ANTICIPATED THE DRIER OF THE TWO. LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY, BUT PLENTY OF DRY HOURS TOO. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS
INDICATED A WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. KEPT A MENTION OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. SOME MVFR TO
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS MAY OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS. SHOWERS BECOME MORE LIKELY TONIGHT, BUT COVERAGE IS
STILL RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN, WITH WESTERN TERMINALS MOST LIKELY
TO SEE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
LINGERING GUSTS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLAND TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, BUT RELATIVELY CALM ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KT MAY MAKE A RETURN BY THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.
SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING WARM
FRONT.
THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME AREAS COULD BE ON THE CUSP
OF LIFR CONDITIONS AS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSH OFFSHORE. SW
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, GENERALLY AROUND 10
KTS ONCE SHOWERS MOVE OUT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IS TIMING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF -SHRA WILL MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL.
INCLUDED A PROB30 AT THIS TIME.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IS TIMING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT TIMING OF -SHRA, AS WELL
AS IF -TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT MORE SW THEN SSW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS REMAINING JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS MAY START TO CREEP TO 5 FT HEADING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ002-
003-008>011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...MCMINN
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