251
FXUS61 KBOX 101836
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
236 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS FROM 06Z
THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
- HEAT ADVISORIES ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT
AND MUCH OF INTERIOR MASSACHUSETTS FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8PM
FRIDAY.
- A FEW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. DECREASING
HUMIDITY AS WELL. WEEKEND LOOKING MOSTLY DRY, WHILE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL BE HELD AT BAY AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
STAY BELOW 15KTS. STILL, SOME OF THE MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE SHOWS
A SLIGHT (5-15%) CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS. NOTABLY, THE HRRR
NEURAL NETWORK STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS OVERNIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE PART
OF THE FORECAST IS AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS SURGE TO 1.9"-2.0"
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF THE MOST CONCENTRATED PRECIPITATION IS STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS FORCING WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AND NEBULOUS.
THERE MAY BE TWO CORRIDORS OF HEAVIER RAIN, ONE NEAR NORTHWESTERN
MASS, AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT ADVISORIES ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND MUCH OF INTERIOR MASSACHUSETTS FROM NOON
THURSDAY TO 8PM FRIDAY.
THE WARMEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR ARRIVES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES SOAR TO +25-29C. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAT, HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH
OF OUR CWA. SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS OPPRESSIVE 65-70 DEGREE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR MA AND NORTHERN CT. THESE
HIGH DEW POINTS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100F THURSDAY AND LIKELY ABOVE 100F FRIDAY ACROSS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AS SUCH, HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH 8PM FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOP. LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND
MAINLY EAST OF 495. FURTHER INLAND, TEMPERATURES SOAR TO THE MIDDLE
AND PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 100-101
DEGREES FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY, BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASED RISK
OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR ANYONE SPENDING EXTENDED TIME OUTDOORS
WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION OR ACCESS TO COOLING.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST HEAT INDEX VALUES
>95F EXPAND. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS APPARENT TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 90 AND 95 DEGREES IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.
WHILE JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NO
LESS DANGEROUS TO THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION OR COOLING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A FEW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY SET THE STAGE FOR IMPRESSIVE LEVELS
OF INSTABILITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF AGGREGATE SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITES, MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
15-20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
IN TERMS OF CAPE, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WEAK SHEAR AS VALUES OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 20KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING
WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. STILL, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO THE RICHLY BUOYANT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. NOTABLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 6-7.5C/KM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORM WOULD BE COLD POOL-DRIVEN DAMAGING
WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DECREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL. WEEKEND LOOKING MOSTLY DRY, WHILE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO FRONTS SHOULD DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE
FRONTS WILL BE LOWERED HUMIDITY. IT SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY WARM FOR
MOST, IF NOT OUTRIGHT HOT. AT LEAST THE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 80S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE
LOWER 90S.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STALLS YET ANOTHER FRONT
TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARDS NJ SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FORCING
LOOKS RATHER WEAK, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THE IDEA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN OUR AREA AT TIMES. A SUBTLE SHIFT OF EVEN JUST
20 MILES TO THE SOUTH, AND THE FORECAST COULD BE LARGELY DRY. THIS
IS ONE OF THOSE DETAILS YET TO BE IRONED OUT. CHANGES WITH LATER
FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO START, MODERATE CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME
MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS MAY OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. SHOWERS BECOME MORE LIKELY TONIGHT AND
COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED AS THE ACTIVITY MAKES ITS WAY FROM WEST
TO EAST. GREATER CHANCE FOR -TSRA/-SHRA ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY EVENING SW WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE S IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING WARM FRONT LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AS AN INVERSION MOVES
OVERHEAD.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT FROM SHOWERS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SLOW (NOT UNTIL 12Z OR LATER). SOME
AREAS COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF LIFR CONDITIONS AS ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS PUSH OFFSHORE. SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS ONCE SHOWERS MOVE OUT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. TEMPO FOR -SHRA CONTINUES FROM 01-05Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. TIMING FOR SHRA AND LATER TSRA STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.
INCLUDED AS TEMPOS FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SEAS 2-4 FEET FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS EXCEPT 3-5 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-25 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ002-
003-008>011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/FT
AVIATION...HRENCECIN/FT
MARINE...FT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page