084
FXUS61 KBOX 121810
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
210 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR FAR WESTERN CT AND MA. THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ALSO
REMAINS LOW, BUT NOT ZERO, FOR EASTERN MA/RI.
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORIES ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
CT, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RI, AND MOST OF MA THROUGH 8PM THIS
EVENING.
- A FEW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT, SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.
- COOLDOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRIER WEATHER
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT ADVISORIES ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN CT AND MUCH OF INTERIOR MA FROM NOON TODAY TO 8PM
FRIDAY.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY PEAKS TODAY AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MID 90S INLAND (LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL COMMUNITIES WITH ONSHORE FLOW).
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 COMBINED WITH THE HIGH HEAT AND SUNNY SKIES
WILL LEAD TO "FEEL LIKE" TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 (IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY) THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, THE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FEW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LINGERING HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS CLASHING WITH A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. EARLIEST STORMS ARE LIKELY TO POP OVER EASTERN MA AND RI
ALONG A STAGNATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANGE OF
BECOMING SEVERE, LIKELY FIRES LATER IN THE EVENING OVER WESTERN
MA AND CT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
THIS MORNING IN EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST STORMS COULD PUSH, AS THE
LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS INDICATING CAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF
1200 J/KG QUICKLY DECAYING AROUND SUNSET. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DCAPE VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1000 AS WELL AS
PWATS 1.5-2.0", WHICH LEAN CONFIDENCE TO THE GREATEST RISKS WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TO BE HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS
WELL AS SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE. THE WEEKEND
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.
WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL INTO THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, DEWPOINTS WILL DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY,
LEADING TO SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE STICKY AIRMASS WE'VE
BEEN SEEING. A RIDGING PATTERN WILL ALSO MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND,
BRINGING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECTING THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND THUS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS, GUIDANCE IS INDICATING INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE
LOWER SIDE, POTENTIALLY LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE IN NATURE. REGARDLESS, QUITE CONFIDENT IN AT LEAST
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
KEY MESSAGE 4...EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD FEATURE A BRIEF COOLDOWN
TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY PUSHED OFFSHORE, 850MB
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS (C) COMPARED TO THE
UPPER TEENS WE'VE BEEN SEEING. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S OR LOW 80S WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS FOR NORTH COASTAL TERMINALS, WITH
LIGHT W WINDS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL TAFS. A FEW ROUNDS OF TSRA
COULD DEVELOP, FIRST IN THE 18-00Z TIME PERIOD OVER EASTERN MA
AND RI TERMINALS ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT IS LOW. THEN AGAIN A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE 22Z-04Z PERIOD, DIMINISHING AS IT
MOVES EAST.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA EXITING BY 04Z. VFR EXCEPT NEAR THE CAPE/ISLANDS
WHERE MVFR VISBYS UNDER BR MAY CREEP IN OFF THE WATERS. NW WINDS
5-10 KTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW 00-04Z.
SATURDAY....HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 8-12 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR. COULD SEE A
FEW TS DEVELOP 19-00Z ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT, MESSAGED AS A VCTS GIVEN THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARBY. LOW CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
FROM WESTERN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO REACH THE TERMINAL. BY THE
TIME IT GET EAST TO THE TERMINAL, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE
SHRA.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR. LIGHT W WINDS.
BECOMING NW AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE 22-01Z.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT, EXCEPT 3-4 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATER
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS
OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>006-
008>014-017-018-026.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>004.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN
AVIATION...MENSCH
MARINE...MCMINN
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