885
FXUS61 KBOX 131140
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
740 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HUMIDITY ON THE DECREASE.
- EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINING LOW.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY RETURNS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN LATE-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HUMIDITY ON THE DECREASE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS REMAINS DRAPED OVER NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE
"FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AS
DEWPOINTS DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WITH A RIDGING PATTERN
MOVING INTO PLACE ALOFT, EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINING LOW.
A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY LIKELY REMAINS LOW HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
DESPITE ELEVATED SHEAR MAGNITUDES, WHICH WILL HELP TO MITIGATE
THE RISK FOR STORMS TO TURN SEVERE. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN
RAINFALL TOTALS, WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE INDICATING
2.0"+ PWATS COULD STRETCH ANYWHERE FROM DELMARVA TO PORTLAND,
ME. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING 2.0-2.15" PWATS
ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT THE GFS AND
CANADIAN GUIDANCE KEEP THAT DEEP MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
LONG ISLAND. THE LATEST ROUND OF ENSEMBLES AND AI ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WORST PWATS OFF OUR SOUTHERN WATERS;
HOWEVER, THERE IS A NOTICEABLE NORTHWARD TREND FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
RETURNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RETURN TO A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATE-WEEK.
A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS THEN WORKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS
NOW DROPPING TO AROUND +8 TO +10C, SOME 5-7C LOWER THAN WE'VE
BEEN SEEING. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE LOW 80S, WITH
DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, BRINGING ABOUT
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO CLIMB AGAIN HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT ARE STILL
SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH STILL TOLERABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES IN AND
SWEEPS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS COULD
BRING A BETTER SHOT AT SHOWERS/STORMS, ALTHOUGH IT'S STILL TOO
EARLY FOR SPECIFICS AT THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS AROUND 8-12 KTS, BUT SHIFT TO
W AROUND 5-8 KT AFTER 20Z. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR COASTAL
SEABREEZES BUT WOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY IF THEY DEVELOP AS
WESTERLY WINDS START TO EASE (AFTER 20Z). WINDS SHIFT SW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AROUND 5-10 KT.
SUNDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. POTENTIAL FOR A LATE-DAY
SEABREEZE AFTER 20Z BUT THIS WILL HINGE ON IF NORTHWEST WINDS
CAN SLACKEN OFF ENOUGH.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SHRA LIKELY, CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT, EXCEPT 3-4 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN
AVIATION...LOCONTO/MCMINN
MARINE...MCMINN
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