565
FXUS61 KBOX 131924
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
324 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) EXISTS FOR THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN MA, INCLUDING CT.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY RISK. OTHERWISE, GENERAL TRENDS
REMAIN UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND UP TO ONE-FOOT OF STORM SURGE
COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDES
TONIGHT, SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY RETURNS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN LATE-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS REMAINS OVERHEAD FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TOMORROW, SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S FOR MOST, WITH THE COASTAL
AREAS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 60S. HOWEVER, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, SO IT WILL
CONTINUE FEELING NOT AS UNCOMFORTABLE AS PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AFFIXED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 6-11 PM SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT,
AND FOR WESTERN MA (INTO CT), A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN RAISED. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS MORE OF AN
INDICATION FOR AN ELEVATED CONVECTION SETUP TOWARDS THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES DOWN INTO HARTFORD, WITH THE MAIN RISK
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL TOTALS, THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THERE MAY BE A "SPLIT"
OF HIGHER TOTALS THAT MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOLOW THAT COULD SHIFT OFFSHORE HEADING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD CONSIDERABLY LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CURRENTLY, THE REGION COULD EXPECT
TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN 0.25-0.35" OF RAIN AND THAT LOW FEATURE
WOULD BE TRACKING MORE JUST OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. PWAT VALUES
ARE MAINLY FORECAST AROUND 1.5" WITH POCKETS OF 2.00"+ CREEPING
NORTH INTO RI, SE MA, AND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TRENDING THIS CORE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME FURTHER NORTH INTO THESE AREAS. CONSIDERING THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS, LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY ~7 AM MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND UP TO ONE-FOOT OF
STORM SURGE COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE EVENING
HIGH TIDES TONIGHT, SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE BUILDING TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVEL FOR THIS
MONTH THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE EVENING HIGH TIDE PERIODS BOTH
TONIGHT, SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT POSE THE GREATEST RISK AS
THESE HIGH TIDES ARE THE HIGHEST. LATEST STORM SURGE FORECAST DATA
FROM P-ETSS AND STEVENS INSTITUTE INDICATE ABOUT A HALF TO UP TO ONE
FOOT OF STORM SURGE, PEAKING SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS A LOW-CEILING COASTAL FLOODING SCENARIO, WITH SPLASHOVER OR
AT WORST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE SHORELINE
ROADS (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO EASY STREET IN NANTUCKET AND
MORRISSEY BLVD IN BOSTON). HOWEVER GIVEN THAT THERE ARE MORE
VISITORS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHO MAY NOT BE AS FAMILIAR WITH
COASTAL FLOODING, WE OPTED TO ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COAST WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR NANTUCKET. THESE START TONIGHT AND RUN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 4...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
RETURNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RETURN TO A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATE-WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C MOST AREAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS START TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
WEDNESDAY, AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAYTIME WITH THE EC ENS HOLDING OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO CLIMB AGAIN
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT ARE STILL SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WITH STILL TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONGER
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRIGGERS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SPECIFICS ABOUT TIMING AND
AMOUNTS STILL TO BE WORKED OUT, BUT MOVES IN AND SWEEPS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS COULD BRING A BETTER SHOT
AT SHOWERS/STORMS, ALTHOUGH IT'S STILL TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIMEFRAME. EARLY INDICATIONS SHOWING A TREND TOWARD DRYER
WEATHER TO START NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 8-12 KTS, BUT SHIFT TO W AROUND 5-8 KT
AFTER 20Z. SEABREEZES EXPECTED TO PUSH IN BY 20Z, WITH SOME
AREAS ALREADY SEEING LOCAL SEABREEZES, NAMELY ON THE SOUTH SHORE
AND SOME SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WINDS SHIFT SW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AROUND 5-10 KT.
SUNDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE WITH INCOMING SHRA AND TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS PREVAILING OUT OF
THE SOUTH FROM 10-15 KT SUSTAINED, SHIFTING NW IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT, EXCEPT 3-4 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE S SUNDAY, SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SEAS INCREASE TO 4-5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, AND WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY, SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-20 KT AND
GUSTING TO 25 KT. WINDS ALSO SHIFT MORE W HEADING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER THE WATERS, AND LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 25 KT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
DISCUSSION...LOCONTO/HRENCECIN/MANNING
AVIATION...HRENCECIN/MANNING
MARINE...HRENCECIN/MANNING
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