258
FXUS61 KBOX 141901
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
301 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT,
SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
- DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER FOLLOWING TONIGHT'S FRONT.
- HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND UP TO ONE-FOOT OF STORM SURGE
COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDES
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
PART OF MI AND SOUTHERN ON WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY AFTER 7 PM. THOUGH, THE CHANCE FOR A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ARRIVING AROUND 6 PM AT THE
EARLIEST TOWARDS WESTERN MA AND CT IS NONZERO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 7-11 PM TONIGHT, AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT
OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS OVER WESTERN MA INTO CT, PRIMARILY
FOR AN ELEVATED SEVERE WIND RISK. CAMS INDICATE AN ELEVATED
CONVECTION SETUP WITH A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AND GOOD
FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT. DESPITE THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SLIGHT
INVERSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THE FORCING FROM THE FRONT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THAT INVERSION AND TAP INTO THE STRONGER
WIND FIELD ALOFT. RAP, NAM, AND NAMNEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY
INCREASE TO AROUND 30-40 KNOTS. WITH THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF
THESE STORMS, CAMS HAVE COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT REGARDING THEM
FORMING ALONG A LINE AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT (AND WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING THAT OCCUR WEST OF THE REGION). HOWEVER, THE
RISK SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND AND AFTER 4 AM. WEAKER STORMS COULD
PERSIST THEN THROUGH AROUND 7 AM.
SOME SPREAD STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE GUIDANCE REGARDING RAINFALL
TOTALS. GENERALLY, THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PART OF FAR NW MA INCLUDED, WHERE
AROUND HALF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. THE MAJORITY REGION CAN EXPECT
TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN 0.20-0.35" OF RAIN AND THE MESOSCALE-
INFLUENCED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WOULD BE TRACKING MORE JUST
OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. THIS IS THE FEATURE TO WATCH WITH
LIMITING RAINFALL TOTALS. PWAT VALUES ARE MAINLY FORECAST
AROUND 1.5-1.8" WITH POCKETS OF 2.00"+ CREEPING NORTH INTO RI,
SE MA, AND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS, LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
ELSEWHERE ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER FOLLOWING TONIGHT'S FRONT.
IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES FALL TO A MORE
SEASONABLE LEVEL. HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. 925 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 15C FROM AROUND 20-25C, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF EASTERN MA WHERE 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 20C
RETURN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN AS
A SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS. LOWS IN THE INTERIOR TOMORROW NIGHT
MAY FALL TO THE LOW 50S WITH MID/UPPER 50S INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN. WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH CLEARER SKIES, LENDING SOME
FAVORABILITY TO A POSSIBLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND UP TO ONE-FOOT OF
STORM SURGE COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE EVENING
HIGH TIDES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE PEAKING TODAY INTO MONDAY. THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE PERIODS BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT POSE THE
GREATEST RISK AS THESE HIGH TIDES ARE THE HIGHEST. LATEST STORM
SURGE FORECAST DATA FROM P-ETSS AND STEVENS INSTITUTE INDICATE
ABOUT A HALF TO UP TO ONE FOOT OF STORM SURGE, PEAKING WITH
TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THIS IS A LOW-CEILING COASTAL FLOODING SCENARIO, WITH
SPLASHOVER OR AT WORST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE USUAL
VULNERABLE SHORELINE ROADS (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO EASY
STREET IN NANTUCKET AND MORRISSEY BLVD IN BOSTON). GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF VISITORS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHO MAY NOT BE AS
FAMILIAR WITH COASTAL FLOODING, WE OPTED TO CONTINUE COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COAST WITH
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NANTUCKET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 4...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AFTER THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHTER PRECIP TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER
SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY. SOME VARIED TIMING
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
BETTER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE EC BUT OVERALL STILL PRETTY
LOW.
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BRINGING AND END TO THE
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND VERY COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...
THIS AFTERNOON: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE WITH INCOMING SHRA AND TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING BULK OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PASS THROUGH 02-08Z WEST OF ORH AND
ROUGHLY 09-12Z EAST OF ORH. WINDS PREVAILING OUT OF THE SOUTH
FROM 10-15 KT SUSTAINED, SHIFTING NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR OR HIGH-END MVFR BY 15Z AS THE
RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE. GENERALLY NW WINDS DECREASING TO NEAR 10
KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. EXPECTING THE RAIN TO ARRIVE BY AT LEAST
07Z, BUT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 05Z. FORECAST UPDATE HAS A
HIGHER CHANCE OF THUNDER REACHING THE BOS TERMINAL BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR A PROB30 AT THIS TIME.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. RAIN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 02Z, BUT EXPECTING
ARRIVAL NO LATER THAN 04Z. GREATER CHANCE FOR TSRA WITH THIS
UPDATE.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE
SHRA.
JUNETEENTH: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SEAS INCREASE TO 4-5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY, AND WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY, SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-20 KT
AND GUSTING TO 25 KT. WINDS ALSO SHIFT MORE NW HEADING INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD OVER THE WATERS, AND LOCALIZED GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM OVER 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MONDAY....HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT DROP TO 2-4
FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. LIKEWISE, WIND GUSTS REMAIN
AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND DROP TO NEAR 10 KTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOCALIZED PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
MAY SEE SEAS TO 5 FT BEFORE SETTLING TO 2-4 FT OVERALL HEADING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN NW, SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10-15
KT WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND GUSTS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 8 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
JUNETEENTH: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
250-251-254>256.
DISCUSSION...LOCONTO/HRENCECIN/MANNING
AVIATION...HRENCECIN/FT/MANNING
MARINE...HRENCECIN/MANNING
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