308
FXUS61 KBOX 100559
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
159 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
COLD FRONT DROPS S FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, CROSSING THROUGH
NORTHERN MA THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWING S OF THE MASS PIKE BY THE
AFTERNOON. FRONT ACTS AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. GENERAL RISKS WITH ANY LIMITED
THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER LIMITS CAPE VALUES TO >1000 J/KG. COULD SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE ON THE EAST COAST OF MA
WITH A SEA BREEZE ACTING AS A MESOSCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. THUS,
HAVE POPS AROUND 20-35% THIS AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS. THE OTHER
STORY TODAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE DEW POINT VALUES WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA BUILDS SOUTHWARD UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL COOL 850 MB TEMPS TO +13-15C, WHICH
TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S. SHOULD FEEL
QUITE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE THAN WHAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED OVER THE
LAST FEW WEEKS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DRY WEATHER SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN SOME COOLER SEABREEZES NEAR THE EASTERN
COAST, IT'S SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT WEEKEND WEATHERWISE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.
A SPRAWLING 594DM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BUILDS EAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES BECOME
QUITE HOT AS 850 MB TEMPS SOAR AGAIN INTO THE +18 TO +22C RANGE.
THESE VALUES ARE SIMILAR (SOMEWHAT COOLER BY COMPARISON) TO OUR LAST
EXTENDED SPELL OF HIGH HEAT/HUMIDITY. THE POTENTIAL COULD EXIST FOR
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS PERHAPS
NECESSITATING A PERIOD OF HEAT HEADLINES FOR MIDWEEK. THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIMITED, WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS NW
FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND A PLUME OF ELEVATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BUILDS IN FAVORING STRONGER INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR BUT STARTING TO SEE IFR- LIFR STRATUS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST; POTENTIAL FOR MVFR- IFR CEILINGS AS FAR NORTH AS
PVD TO OWD BY 09Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IF IT SLIPS INTO
BOS/BED. SW WINDS AROUND 7-12 KT, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT EASTERN
AND SOUTHEAST MA, THOUGH GUSTS SUBSIDE TO SUSTAINED SW WINDS
5-10 KT OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE TAFS FRI IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR WINDS TURNING NWLY UNDER
10 KT FOR BDL-ORH-BED-BOS BETWEEN 13-15Z WITH BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS; WINDS TURNING NE UNDER 10 KT AT BOS EARLY AFTERNOON.
THINKING AREA MORE FAVORED TO SEE SCT SHRA/TS IS FROM HFD TO
PVD SOUTH AND EAST AFTER 17Z, AFTER OVERNIGHT STRATUS DISPERSES.
A SLOWER PASSAGE WOULD PUT MORE TAFS AT RISK FOR SHRA/TS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LINGERING SHRA/TS MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY FRI NIGHT TO VFR
CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE CHANCE AT RIVER VALLEY FOG IF SKIES CAN
CLEAR OUT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THINKING STRATUS NEAR SOUTH
COAST SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT. WINDSHIFT TO
NW UNDER 10 KT BY 13-15Z FRI, THEN TURNING NE UNDER 10 KT WITH
BKN VFR CEILINGS. SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING WILL AFFECT TIMING OF
WINDSHIFTS FRI.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. PROB30 FOR TSRA
THRU 02Z FRI, OTHERWISE, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH A WINDSHIFT TO
NW AROUND 13-15Z FRI.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT IS NOT LIKELY TO PASS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TRANQUIL
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH AREAS OF
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FT
AVIATION...FT
MARINE...FT
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