972
FXUS61 KBOX 101158
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
758 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
COLD FRONT DROPS S FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, CROSSING THROUGH
NORTHERN MA THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWING S OF THE MASS PIKE BY
THE AFTERNOON. FRONT ACTS AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE AS THE COLUMN DRIES
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. GENERAL RISKS WITH ANY
LIMITED THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER LIMITS CAPE VALUES
TO >1000 J/KG. COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE ON THE EAST COAST OF MA WITH A SEA BREEZE ACTING AS A
MESOSCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. THUS, HAVE POPS AROUND 20-35% THIS
AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS. THE OTHER STORY TODAY WILL BE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE ALONG AND S
OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE DEW POINT VALUES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA BUILDS SOUTHWARD UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL COOL 850 MB TEMPS TO
+13-15C, WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW TO MID
80S. SHOULD FEEL QUITE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE THAN WHAT WE'VE
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN SOME COOLER
SEABREEZES NEAR THE EASTERN COAST, IT'S SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
WEEKEND WEATHERWISE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.
A SPRAWLING 594DM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BUILDS EAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY,
TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE HOT AS 850 MB TEMPS SOAR AGAIN INTO
THE +18 TO +22C RANGE. THESE VALUES ARE SIMILAR (SOMEWHAT COOLER
BY COMPARISON) TO OUR LAST EXTENDED SPELL OF HIGH HEAT/HUMIDITY.
THE POTENTIAL COULD EXIST FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS PERHAPS NECESSITATING A PERIOD OF HEAT
HEADLINES FOR MIDWEEK. THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIMITED,
WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS NW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
AND A PLUME OF ELEVATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUILDS IN FAVORING
STRONGER INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE TAFS FRI IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR WINDS TURNING NWLY UNDER
10 KT FOR BDL-ORH-BED-BOS BETWEEN 13-15Z WITH BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS; WINDS TURNING NE UNDER 10 KT AT BOS EARLY AFTERNOON.
THINKING AREA MORE FAVORED TO SEE SCT SHRA/TS IS FROM HFD TO
PVD SOUTH AND EAST AFTER 17Z, AFTER OVERNIGHT STRATUS DISPERSES.
A SLOWER PASSAGE WOULD PUT MORE TAFS AT RISK FOR SHRA/TS.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LINGERING SHRA/TS MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY FRI NIGHT TO VFR
CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE CHANCE AT RIVER VALLEY FOG IF SKIES CAN
CLEAR OUT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT E TO NE WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. E SEABREEZE COULD DEVELOP
SOONER THAN CURRENTLY IN THE TAF. MOST SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO
REMAIN S OF THE TERMINAL, BUT THERE IS A LOW RISK 18-23Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. NO ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT IS NOT LIKELY TO PASS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TRANQUIL
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH AREAS OF
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FT
AVIATION...BELK/FT
MARINE...FT
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