680
FXUS61 KBOX 110016
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
816 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE CYCLE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE AND OVER MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE
REGION RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY TO THE NH SEACOAST, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ON
THE UPPER CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO 500-1000
J/KG WITH WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS MA BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE SEA
BREEZE NEAR THE CAPE WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ARE LOCATED.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND LOW HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S., STRETCHING ACROSS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MOSTLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL RETURN
MID WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +18 TO +22C. WE
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A PERIOD OF HEAT HEADLINES WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AGAIN.
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW WITH A
BETTER CHANCE ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE SHORT LIVED PRIOR TO THIS
PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH, SO MOISTURE DEPTH WILL REMAIN
SHALLOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, SO WE MAY START TO SEE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IF
THAT TREND CONTINUES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD NEAR ACK.
WINDS MAY BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT, WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
SATURDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MVFR/IFR AT ACK WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE VFR. LIGHT E TO NE WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REESTABLISH OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED SHOWER WITH THE SEABREEZE, BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEAK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. A RISK FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE WATERS AROUND THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER SAT INTO NEXT WED.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HK/CB
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...HK
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