796
FXUS61 KBOX 111829
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
229 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURE
CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURE
CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BECOMES CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY, BRINGING A SEASONABLE AIRMASS INTO
PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALSO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.,
STRETCHING ACROSS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MOSTLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL RETURN MID WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +18 TO +22C. WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
PERIOD OF HEAT HEADLINES WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AGAIN.
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW WITH A
BETTER CHANCE ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE SHORT LIVED PRIOR TO THIS PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH, SO MOISTURE DEPTH WILL REMAIN SHALLOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING
POSSIBLE DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, SO
WE MAY START TO SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IF THAT TREND CONTINUES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. SEABREEZES EXPECTED
THROUGH 00-02Z. LIGHT NW WINDS OVERNIGHT, WITH ANOTHER SEABREEZE
SUNDAY AS EARLY AS 12Z.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
COULD SEE AREAS OF SCA CONDITIONS BY NEXT TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING SW WINDS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 9 FT.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...MCMINN
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