038
FXUS61 KBOX 120528
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
128 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN MIDWEEK WITH POSSIBLE HEAT HEADLINES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BECOMES CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY, BRINGING A SEASONABLE AIRMASS INTO
PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALSO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN MIDWEEK WITH POSSIBLE
HEAT HEADLINES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S., STRETCHING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING MOSTLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL RETURN MID WEEK WITH
SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEARING 100 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A PERIOD OF HEAT HEADLINES WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BEING IN CONTROL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH MAY BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IF THAT TREND
CONTINUES.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER SEABREEZE THIS
MORNING AS EARLY AS 12Z.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH A SEA BREEZE ARRIVING
BY 12Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
COULD SEE AREAS OF SCA CONDITIONS BY NEXT TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING SW WINDS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 9 FT.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN
AVIATION...FT
MARINE...MCMINN
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