989
FXUS61 KBOX 140656
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
256 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED WESTERN HAMPDEN COUNTY TO THE HEAT ADVISORY, AND ISSUED
RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS FOR SOUTH-FACING BEACHES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND SURF.
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZY, HOT AND HUMID TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND/OR INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND SURF EXPECTED ON SOUTH-FACING BEACHES
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT STILL UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HAZY, HOT AND HUMID TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MAIN STORY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS THE HOT TEMPERATURES WITH SOME
HUMIDITY WITH IT, ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 20S C RANGE WHICH BEGIN TO ADVECT IN TODAY FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT, AS TEMPERATURES PROJECT
TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE CAPE AND THE
ISLANDS TODAY AND END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. CERTAINLY
WANT TO LIMIT EXPOSURE OUTDOORS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY IF POSSIBLE; BUT
THIS SPELL OF HEAT SHOULD BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE
EARLY-JULY OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WE HAD. FOR ONE, BOTH DAYS
FEATURE PRETTY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE
25-30 MPH RANGE, AND UPWARDS OF 35 MPH TOWARDS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHICH TEND TO BLOW PRETTY STRONGLY ON SW WINDS. SECOND, THE
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPED WINDS AND SOME MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DEWPOINTS TO STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S: HUMID, BUT NOT THE AIR-
YOU-CAN-WEAR TYPE OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY. NOT SURE IT'S FAIR TO CALL IT
A DRY HEAT, BUT COMPARED TO THE EARLY-JULY STRETCH, IT COULD BE
CONSTRUED THAT WAY. THIRDLY, AT LEAST FOR TODAY, THE 00Z HRRR-SMOKE
GUIDANCE PROGS A PRETTY SIZABLE CONCENTRATION OF VERTICALLY-
INTEGRATED SMOKE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ADVECTING IN FROM THE FIRES BURNING IN NORTHERN MN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SMOKE LAYER LOOKS CONSTRAINED TO
BEING ALOFT SO NO RISK FOR HEALTH PROBLEMS FROM IT, BUT ITS POSSIBLE
THAT IT COULD TEMPER FULL SUN TO AN EXTENT WITH A HAZIER LOOK TO THE
SKY IF IT'S AS CONCENTRATED AS PROGGED TO BE. FOR WEDNESDAY, ONE OF
THE BIGGER FLIES IN THE OINTMENT AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE ADVISORY IS THE TIMING OF A COOL FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS FRONT NOW NEARING THE MA BORDER BY THE PRE-DAWN HRS, THEN
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HRS TO THE MA PIKE AND TO THE
SOUTHERN COAST LATER IN THE DAY. COULD MAKE THE ADVISORY A BIT
BORDERLINE IF WE DO GET AN EARLY-DAY PASSAGE, AS DEWPOINTS TUMBLE
BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. HEAT INDICES TODAY IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S
TODAY, BUT COULD BE CLOSER TO THE LOW 90S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 90S
SOUTH OF THE PIKE WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND/OR INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS THE MORE UNCERTAIN ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO PART OF TONIGHT, WITH AS MUCH AS
A ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN NORTHERN ME, NH
AND VT. IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WE LOOK CAPPED TO CONVECTION TODAY
AND INTO PART OF TONIGHT PER BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES, BUT THERE
REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ABOVE THAT CAPPING INVERSION,
IN SOME SOLUTIONS UPWARDS OF 2500-3000 J/KG OF CAPE USING AN AVERAGE
PARCEL IN THE LOWEST 100 MB OF ATMOSPHERE. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO COME AROUND TO THE IDEA OF SHOWING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TRAILING BACK WESTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT
WITH A WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION INTO CENTRAL VT/NH AS SOON AS
EARLY OVERNIGHT; BUT THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY STILL
IS PRETTY SCATTERSHOT ACROSS THE HIGH-RES SUITE. THIS COULD
ULTIMATELY END UP BEING A NOWCAST SITUATION, BUT GIVEN THIS TREND I
COULDN'T REALLY JUSTIFY NBM'S NIL POPS. OPTED FOR UP TO 30% POP
ALONG THE MA/NH/VT BORDER BETWEEN 4-7 AM WED, THEN SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP, THEY WOULD
LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE QUICKLY GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PRETTY STRONG NW MID-LEVEL
WINDS, WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ALL POSSIBLE, POTENTIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY AS WELL. LOW
CONFIDENCE BUT POTENTIALLY HIGHER IMPACT IF STORMS CAN
MATERIALIZE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND SURF EXPECTED ON SOUTH-
FACING BEACHES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SW BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL END UP
BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT TO AROUND 5-8 FT ON
THE OUTER WATERS, THEN START TO LOWER INTO THE 4-6 FT RANGE FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT BECOMING LONGER IN PERIOD. THIS POSES A RISK FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGHER SURF, AND THOUGH IT'S OFTEN
BULLISH IN ITS OUTPUT, IT IS SUPPORTED BY NWPS HIGH PROBABILITIES
FOR RIP CURRENTS. GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, WE SHOULD SEE AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN PEOPLE
VENTURING TO THE BEACHES. FOR THAT REASON WE'VE HOISTED A RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT FOR TODAY AND RAN IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EARLY
EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE, WITH THOSE AREAS WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FACING EXPOSURES MOST AT-RISK. THERE SHOULD BE FEWER
NUMBERS OF PEOPLE AT BEACHES AT NIGHT BUT SINCE THE WAVES LOOK TO BE
HIGHER TONIGHT, OPTED TO NOT GET CUTE WITH THE TIMING. THE WAVE
PERIODS ARE ON THE SHORTER SIDE TODAY WHICH COULD REDUCE WAVE ENERGY
TO AN EXTENT, AS IT'S OFTEN THE LONGER PERIOD WAVES WHICH CAUSE THE
BIGGEST RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. SWIM NEAR VICINITY OF LIFEGUARDS AND
STAY OFF JETTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 4...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE THIS WEEKEND.
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST DRIVES A FAST, BUT BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOST OF THIS PERIOD. AFTER THE COOL
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S RETURN WITH LESS HUMIDITY. WE'LL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT THRU LATE THIS
WEEK, WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO OFFER A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING
THIS WEEKEND WHICH OFFERS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR NEEDED RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SW WINDS AROUND 8-14 KT, STRONGEST EASTERN/SOUTHEAST MA.
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. HAZY SKIES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH-ALTITUDE SMOKE LOFTED
IN FROM FIRES IN CENTRAL CANADA, AND MESSAGED AS BKN200 DECKS
IN TAFS. SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 12-16 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE TSRA. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN, BUT COULD DEVELOP IN NORTHERN MA AS SOON AS
07Z WED OR FURTHER INTO WED AS COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. ANY
STORM COULD BECOME STRONG IF THEY DO DEVELOP. SW WINDS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AROUND 8-14 KT, BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LIKELY WHERE
GUSTS SUBSIDE GIVEN 40-45 KT SW LOW LEVEL JET. WINDS THEN SHIFT
TO NW AROUND 10 KT UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE, BEST ESTIMATE 13-21Z
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR. GUSTY SW WINDS TO
30 KT TODAY. POSSIBLE HAZY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON FROM SMOKE
LOFTED ALOFT FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR. GUSTY SW WINDS TO
25 KT TODAY. POSSIBLE HAZY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON FROM SMOKE
LOFTED ALOFT FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCAS TAKE EFFECT TODAY AND WERE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY. SW
WINDS INCREASE TODAY TO AROUND 25-30 KT, WITH LOW PROB OF GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. SEAS THEN SLOWLY
EASE INTO WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE SCA RANGE FOR
WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTHERN WATERS AS
SOON AS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED AM, WITH LESSER RISK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTN/NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR MAZ003>007-010>021-026.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MAZ009.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR RIZ001>007.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ236.
DISCUSSION...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...LOCONTO
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