162
FXUS61 KBOX 010447
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1247 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SOGGY, WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY SUNDOWN, WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE.
- SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COULD FAVOR SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH STREET FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDOWN, WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER SCATTERED INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON IN A WEAKLY-UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE SETTING, WITH A COUPLE
BEING CAPABLE OF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO MOVE
GRADUALLY OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED,
AND EVEN LIGHTNING WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY. WE DO CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT, AND WITH THAT COMES THE RISK FOR PATCHY FOG; THE MORE
TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OTHERWISE LOOKS FAVORABLE WITH FULL SUN AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS, WITH SEABREEZES AT THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COULD FAVOR SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH STREET FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
LATEST ENSEMBLES POINT TO AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE EARLY
TO MIDWEEK AS A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARBY OR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH AN INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ON
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAIN RISK THIS FRONT WILL BRING TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOAKING DOWNPOURS GIVEN
THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHLY MOISTURE-
RICH AIRMASS PRECEDING IT. IT'S STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT THE HIGHEST
RAIN TOTALS WOULD LOOK LIKE AND WHERE THEY WOULD FALL, BUT WITH A
FEW SPOT AREAS IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVING REGISTERED
QUITE A BIT OF RAIN IN THE LAST 48 HOURS, THERE WOULD BE SOME RISK
FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING. PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL OVER 1" IN
24 HOURS HAS INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO MODERATE (20-40%) RANGE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 12Z: HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL, LOW ON FOG COVERAGE.
VFR AT MOST TERMINALS, BUT PATCHY FOG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 13Z. BEST CHANCE AT BDL, BED AND ORH. SW
WINDS AROUND 5 KT, BECOMING LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT, WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING AT BOS
AROUND 14-15Z. LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM 17Z-00Z.
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATED BY 13Z.
SATURDAY NIGHT:HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR CIGS MOVE IN AFTER 06Z, MAINLY SFZ-GHG
SOUTH.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA
LIKELY, CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT, SHIFTING TO
LIGHT SW OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10-15 KT, AND
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT SATURDAY OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS
THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO 3-4 FT.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...LOCONTO
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