184
FXUS61 KBOX 010556
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
156 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH
MOST WILL STAY DRY.
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, BUT THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS.
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RETURN OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN,
BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-
STORMS.
A WARMER AIRMASS REMAINS OVERHEAD THANKS TO BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SNE THIS MORNING THEN BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THIS REASON,
DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY, INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR. THAT BEING SAID, THE FORECAST FOR A MOSTLY DRY DAY
PERSISTS, WITH JUST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
GIVEN A FEW 1000 J/KG OF CAPE. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE UP HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO INDUCE A QUICK DOWNPOUR GIVEN PWATS STILL OVER 1".
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WE'LL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND DIURNAL LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RETURN OF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY AS AN
ANOMOLOUS MID-LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INDUCING A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WHICH ITSELF VERY SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST.
THIS WAVE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY AND
PRECEDED BY AN ANOMALOUS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WITH PWATS OVER
2" (2+SD ABOVE NORMAL). ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAIN ARRIVES BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING (WEST) OR SUNDAY NIGHT (EAST) AS WARM ADVECTION TAKES
HOLD. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES LIKELY OCCUR ON MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCES AT THE SURFACE. THIS, COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM A 35-45KT LLJ AND PLACEMENT UNDER THE RRQ OF A 120KT
300MB JET WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SNE. STILL
TOO SOON TO SAY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OR HOW MUCH, BUT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCHES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DESPITE SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING IT. THIS WILL COME INTO FOCUS AS WE GET INTO RANGE OF
MORE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LLJ
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CAPE/ISLANDS AND OVER THE WATERS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO HOW MUCH, IF ANY, OF A
BREAK WE SEE IN WET WEATHER BETWEEN THE EXITING SHORTWAVE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT. THAT BEING SAID, NO SPRAWLING OR
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS IN THE CARDS SO PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES LIKELY PERSIST.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 12Z: HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL, LOW ON FOG COVERAGE.
VFR AT MOST TERMINALS, BUT PATCHY FOG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 13Z. BEST CHANCE AT BDL, BED AND ORH. SW
WINDS AROUND 5 KT, BECOMING LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT, WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING AT BOS
AROUND 14-15Z. LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM 17Z-00Z.
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATED BY 13Z.
SATURDAY NIGHT:HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR CIGS MOVE IN AFTER 06Z, MAINLY SFZ-GHG
SOUTH.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA
LIKELY, CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT SW TONIGHT THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 10-15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO 3-4 FT.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page