851
FXUS61 KBOX 071758
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
158 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS VERY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE LEVEL OF HEAT DOES BEGIN TO DROP OFF SO THE CURRENT
THOUGHT IS TO NOT EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY BEYOND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT CONTINUES TODAY, WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN A THREAT
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS WELL AS
CONTINUING HIGH HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT CONTINUES TODAY, WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT REMAIN ELEVATED, RIGHT AROUND
74 FOR A LOW. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO REMAINING ELEVATED, AROUND 72,
AND A LAYER OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST,
CAPE/ISLANDS, AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
IT'LL TAKE A BIT OF SUN POWER TO BURN OFF GIVEN HOW TROPICAL AN
AIRMASS WE HAVE SITTING OVER US. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
SURGE AGAIN TODAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH
925MB TEMPS AROUND +25C THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW, DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN TODAY AS
WELL... RIGHT AROUND 73-74, LEADING TO "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES
TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S, NEAR 100 AT TIMES. ALSO EXPECTING
LITTLE TO NO RELIEF TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S WITH DEWPOINTS NOT MUCH LOWER.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2-4 DEGREES LESS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
HUMIDITY WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO "FEELS
LIKE" TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE LOW 90S.
HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN
A THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS WELL AS
CONTINUING HIGH HUMIDITY.
WHILE A LOW-LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST STORMS FROM
FIRING DURING THE DAY, CAM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN/INTERIOR
PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
NOTABLY, THE HRRR NEURAL NETWORK'S 03Z RUN HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS AS FAR EAST AS HARTFORD/CT
RIVER VALLEY COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN. HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN NORTHERN NJ/NYC METRO, BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT 1 OR 2 POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IN WESTERN CT/MA TONIGHT.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH ROUGHLY THE SAME
SET- UP AS TODAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE
LATE EVENING/POST-SUNSET HOURS, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE HONING IN ON
A MORE ROBUST LINE PUSHING THROUGH THE NYC METRO AND
SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTION OF CT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO POP BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. PWATS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 2.0" OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW COULD BE RATHER WEEK, LEADING TO SLOW MOVING
STORMS OR EVEN TRAINING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HAS SEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK OR TWO, ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AS WELL AS CONTINUING HIGH HUMIDITY.
EXPECTING A FEW MORE SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW AS WELL AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FROPA COULD BRING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK,
KNOCKING DEWPOINTS DOWN TO THE HIGH 60S INSTEAD OF MID 70S, BUT
HUMIDITY LEVELS LIKELY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS. GENERAL TIMEFRAME 00-06Z, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY STORM DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z AS THERE ARE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN NY AS OF 18Z. WSW WINDS
8-12 KTS. POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF LATE-DAY SEA BREEZE (~21Z) FOR
BOS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE (SHRA/TS TIMING AND CEILINGS)
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST. BR/FG POSSIBLE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS AS WELL. LOW
PROBABILITY IT EXTENDS NORTH ENOUGH TO IMPACT MORE NORTHERN
TERMINAL. A BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT LIKELY
DIMINISH INTO SCATTERED
-SHRA AS IT REACHES CENTRAL MA AND EASTWARD 04-08Z. WINDS SW
LESS THAN 10 KTS.
SATURDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR FOR MOST. IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTH/CAPE TERMINALS
GRADUALLY SCATTERS OUT 13-16Z. SW/WSW WINDS 8-12 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FLOW REMAINS STEADY W/WNW
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS KEPT THE TERMINAL FROM GETTING A
SEA BREEZE. STILL CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF LATE-DAY
SEA BREEZE IF WINDS SLACKEN AFTER 21Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RISK FOR TSRA MAINLY IN THE
00-06Z TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY STORM AFTER
21Z AS STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN NY AS OF 18Z.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SW FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ003>007-
010>021-026.
RI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN
AVIATION...MENSCH
MARINE...MCMINN
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