875
FXUS61 KBOX 091053
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
653 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT WITH DRY WEATHER TODAY. HUMIDITY BRIEFLY TRENDS DOWN
TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO HIGHER LEVELS MON-WED. RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT COMES LATE WEEK.
- OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT WITH DRY WEATHER TODAY. HUMIDITY BRIEFLY
TRENDS DOWN TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO HIGHER LEVELS MON-WED.
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT COMES LATE WEEK.
EXPECTING TODAY TO REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS OVERALL FLOW RETURNS
TO A ZONAL, WESTERLY PATTERN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER
80S, NEAR 90S, TODAY AS 925MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND
+22C. EXPECTING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING, BRINGING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS OVERNIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY, DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT
THE DAYTIME HOURS, PROLONGING HUMID CONDITIONS, BEFORE TRENDING
INTO THE LOW 60S TONIGHT. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK, LEADING DAILY HIGH TEMPS TO BE IN THE
UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS TO TICK BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S,
PERIODICALLY NEAR 70, THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE RELIEF FINALLY
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... HIGH TEMPS BY FRIDAY NEAR 80
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY THIS WEEK, PUSHING SEVERAL
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE EASTERN TOWNSHIPS AND NEW
ENGLAND. THESE WILL LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF
DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE'VE
SEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK, THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE
CONVECTION, LEADING TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE AND
WHEN STORMS COULD FIRE. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SEE SEVERAL
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER BETWEEN THESE SHORTWAVES, SO NOT
EXPECTING RAIN AND THUNDER ALL THE TIME, BUT THERE WILL BE
STORMS TO DODGE HERE-AND-THERE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
VSBYS CLIPPING ACK TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...W WINDS MAY GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR OUTSIDE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW T-STORMS WITH THE GREATEST RISK ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 5-12 KNOTS BUT SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE VERY IMMEDIATE COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED OFF OF THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND. GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TODAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SCA LEVELS. WINDS BRIEFLY TURN
WNW THIS EVENING WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE RETURNING TO SW
BY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN
AVIATION...FRANK
MARINE...MCMINN
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