045
FXUS61 KBOX 101847
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
247 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT & HUMIDITY COMES LATE WEEK AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURNING THIS EVENING AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT & HUMIDITY COMES
LATE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
A BIT OF A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO START THE WEEK AS THE
PATTERN IS OVERALL PRETTY ZONAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING UP
TO NEAR 850 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE/WILL BE HOVERING AROUND 16C
RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S, PERHAPS TOUCHING 90S IN THE
WARMEST SPOTS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WE'LL THEN SEE A GRADUAL COOLING
DOWN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. 850 MB
TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 13C BY MID WEEK LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
(HIGH ELEVATIONS) TO MID 80S. THE WEEKEND, THOUGH, LOOKS QUITE
COMFORTABLE AS DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE ELEVATED AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEK BUT NEVER OPPRESSIVE, REALLY DROP BY THE WEEKEND INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S! THIS LEADS TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME COOLER NIGHTS IN
THE 50S WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURNING THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS
SOME TIME FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT A RATHER NARROW TIME WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, PRETTY MUCH FROM 5-9 PM. MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES PEAK
ABOUT 750-1,100 J/KG DURING THIS TIME, THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING TO MAINTAIN IT
MUCH LONGER. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET,
THEY SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME THEY REACH EASTERN MA. ANTICIPATING THE
MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION OVER PA AND NY STATE TO REMAIN
MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THOUGH
AS IT COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT AS POTENT MOVING INTO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.
COMPLICATED FORECAST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THUS, THE TIMING IS NOT WELL KNOWN. THIS FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE A
TRIGGER FOR SOME SHOWERS AT TIMES, BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. A
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY GET CLOSE ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO PUSH THIS
FRONT OFFSHORE, AND RETURN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
THIS AFTERNOON: GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE, BUT MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PROBABILITY OF TSRA.
VFR WITH HAZY SKIES FROM HIGH LEVEL SMOKE POSSIBLE. WINDS SW
5-10 KTS. SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY, STARTING AS
SOON AS 21Z AT BDL WITH THE HIGHER RISK AFTER 23Z. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES IN TSRA AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES E/ESE TOWARD ORH AND
FURTHER EAST TERMINALS (00-05Z).
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOS KICKS OUT 23-01Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
SW. SW WINDS 5-10 KTS SHIFT TO WSW/W OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT:HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHRA/TSRA AFTER 01-06Z. TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT POSSIBLE.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRA OR A TSRA AFTER 21Z, BUT MORESO
AFTER 23Z. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP, A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE
WITH GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTING, AND BRIEF IFR VISBYS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BECOMING SW 10-15 KTS. BECOMING W AFTER 06Z. LOCAL SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA MONDAY. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BELK/BW
AVIATION...BELK/BW
MARINE...BELK/BW
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