733
FXUS61 KBOX 110011
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
811 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED RAINFALL CHANCES THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMES LATE WEEK
AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURNING THIS EVENING AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
COMES LATE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
A BIT OF A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO START THE WEEK AS
THE PATTERN IS OVERALL PRETTY ZONAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MIXING UP TO NEAR 850 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE/WILL BE HOVERING
AROUND 16C RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S, PERHAPS
TOUCHING 90S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WE'LL THEN
SEE A GRADUAL COOLING DOWN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND ESPECIALLY
BY THE WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 13C BY MID WEEK
LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S (HIGH ELEVATIONS) TO MID 80S.
THE WEEKEND, THOUGH, LOOKS QUITE COMFORTABLE AS DEWPOINTS WHICH
WILL BE ELEVATED AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK BUT NEVER OPPRESSIVE,
REALLY DROP BY THE WEEKEND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S! THIS
LEADS TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME COOLER NIGHTS IN THE 50S WHILE
AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURNING THIS EVENING, AS
WELL AS SOME TIME FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHED QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORTED THE IDEA OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST. LOWERED RAINFALL CHANCES THIS EVENING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.
COMPLICATED FORECAST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THUS, THE TIMING IS NOT WELL KNOWN. THIS FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR SOME SHOWERS AT TIMES, BUT IT
SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. A HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY GET
CLOSE ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO PUSH THIS FRONT OFFSHORE, AND RETURN
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SW WINDS 5-10 KTS SHIFT TO WSW/W OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. SW WINDS SHIFT W
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN NW TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BELK/BW
AVIATION...BELK/BW
MARINE...BELK/BW
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