970
FXUS61 KBOX 111733
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
133 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SHOWER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- YET ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...YET ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONE MORE DAY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON TAP TODAY, WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES OF +20C TO +23C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WILL MAKE IT
FEEL WARMER, WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE HEATRISK, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR, WITH THOSE MOST SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACTS.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
GRADUALLY COOL, WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM THE LOWER 20S
CELSIUS TODAY INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS BY FRIDAY. DEW POINTS WILL
FOLLOW SUIT, DROPPING FROM THE 60S TODAY INTO THE 50S BY LATE THIS
WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND MORE REFRESHING
AIRMASS BY FRIDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DRIVER OF THIS TRANSITION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, KEEPING THE
REGION IN A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY, AS A COLD FRONT, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION BEHIND IT, AIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA.
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE STRETCH OF
WEATHER IN QUITE SOME TIME, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOWER 80S ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. THESE PLEASANT CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED BY THEN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED TODAY, ALTHOUGH
SKIES MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT FILTERED BY ELEVATED SMOKE FROM DISTANT
WILDFIRES. TONIGHT, A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD
PRODUCE A SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH COAST
AND ISLANDS, BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW AT LESS THAN 15 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS A LOWER-CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE
MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND, THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
NAM DEVELOPS A ROBUST 995 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BENCHMARK
(40N/70W), WHILE THE 3 KM NAM ALSO DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW IN THE
VICINITY, THOUGH CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. AI GUIDANCE LIKEWISE MAINTAINS
THE SURFACE WAVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THE OVERALL CONSENSUS,
THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION, WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WEAK SURFACE LOWS
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY,
THE SETUP DOES NOT CURRENTLY FAVOR CONTINUOUS RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY, ALLOWING DRIER
AIR TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE DRY AND MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN BECOMES LESS SETTLED,
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z UPDATE...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WNW TO NW WINDS 8-12 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE (< 15%) FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM TO BE IN VICINITY OF BDL AFTER 21Z THROUGH 00Z.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF NW LESS THAN 10 KTS. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABABILITY FOR A SHOWER FOR THE ISLANDS (< 20%).
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT N/NW WINDS. EASTERLY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR BOS AND
OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS 14-17Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(10-20%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS 09-15Z WITH "GREATER RISK" FOR THE ISLANDS (ACK).
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS FOR OTHER TERMINALS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST, GUSTING AT TIMES TO AROUND 20 KT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WATERS SOUTH OF RHODE ISLAND TOWARD BUZZARDS BAY AND VINEYARD SOUND.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT. ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALIZED SEA
BREEZES MAY DEVELOP NEAR SHORE, WHILE OFFSHORE WINDS REMAIN VARIABLE
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 3 FT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY
AVIATION...MENSCH
MARINE...DOOLEY
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