442
FXUS61 KBOX 120610
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
210 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY BRINGS INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
- A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
RESULTING IN MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH
THURSDAY, STRONGER FORCING FRIDAY MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
RESULTING IN MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THURSDAY, STRONGER
FORCING FRIDAY MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE A WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THIS LEAVES THE FLOW ALOFT RELATIVELY QUASI-ZONAL,
ALLOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE CONTINENT INTO THE
NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING, SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THROUGH
THURSDAY.
TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY, WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGHEST POPS, GENERALLY 10-20 PERCENT, WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE, A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER SURGE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY RESULT IN HAZY OR MILKY SKIES. A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED, HOWEVER, WITH POPS
GENERALLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE NORTHWEST OF I-95 AND I-495.
THURSDAY FEATURES A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW, WITH
SIMILAR POPS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
A MORE NOTABLE CHANGE ARRIVES FRIDAY AS THE FRONT'S DEPARTURE HAS
TRENDED LATER. A STRONGER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING
FORCING WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BRINGING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
DEW POINTS FOLLOWING SUIT. THE RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLY COOLER
AND MORE REFRESHING AIRMASS BY LATE WEEK. THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP
TO BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE STRETCH OF WEATHER IN QUITE SOME TIME,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND LOWER 80S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALL INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK REMAIN SEASONABLE, THOUGH DEW POINTS MAY TREND UPWARD ON
MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT N/NW WINDS. EASTERLY SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT EAST COAST
TERMINALS BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) FOR A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS FROM
08Z AND 12Z, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE ISLANDS,
PARTICULARLY KACK. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT OTHER
TERMINALS.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, TRENDING TOWARD LOWER-END VFR/MVFR AFTER 06Z TO 08Z, WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE. SW WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT TO CALM ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOWER-END VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS TO START, IMPROVING TO VFR (CIGS 050-
080) DURING THE AFTERNOON. SW TO WSW WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SEA BREEZE ARRIVES AROUND 15-16Z. WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT POSSIBLE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY, LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES MAY DEVELOP NEAR SHORE, WHILE OFFSHORE
WINDS REMAIN SW TO SSE AT LESS THAN 10 KT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER SW TO
SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 3 FT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DOOLEY
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