188
FXUS61 KBOX 290623
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
223 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- A FALL-LIKE FEEL WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY TODAY, BECOMING MORE SUMMER-LIKE SUNDAY. THE WEEKEND
REMAINS DRY, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY.
- CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE MONDAY NOW LOOKS
CLOUDY BUT GENERALLY DRY, BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FALL-LIKE FEEL WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY TODAY, BECOMING MORE SUMMER-LIKE SUNDAY.
THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRY, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS FOR MOST OF THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURES AS WELL TODAY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY ONCE AGAIN.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE, PARTICULARLY THE NAM AND GFS, HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO A PROJECTED WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATE WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. INTRODUCED A LOW RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY,
BUT THESE ARE MORE LIKELY TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY
TOWARDS THE OCEAN-EXPOSED CAPE BEACHES AND NANTUCKET. THOSE
HEADING TO THE BEACH SHOULD CHECK WITH BEACH STAFF OR LIFEGUARDS
REGARDING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE MONDAY
NOW LOOKS CLOUDY BUT GENERALLY DRY, BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUE THROUGH THURS.
TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO MUDDY THE WATERS
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. SOME MEMBERS KEEP A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE, OTHERS HAVE
A MORE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA, WHICH NUDGES
THIS FRONT JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP MONDAY DRY. BASED ON
SOME TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, CONTINUING TO FAVOR A DRY
DAY FOR MONDAY, WITH A LITTLE MORE HOPE FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT THIS FRONT GOES FAR FROM OUR REGION. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT IT WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD THEN TAKE OVER HEADING INTO
THURSDAY. STILL LOOKING AT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING
THIS TIME. EXPECT A NARROWER RANGE IN HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW TO N WINDS 5 TO AROUND 10 KT, BECOMING LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW OVERNIGHT, WITH SPEEDS LESS
THAN 5 KT, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT SUNDAY
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY, THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH MAY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. WINDS GENERALLY NW TO N THIS
MORNING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT W THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEABREEZES
POSSIBLE NEARSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SW WINDS TONIGHT,
INCREASE SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BELK/LOCONTO
AVIATION...BELK/LOCONTO
MARINE...BELK/LOCONTO
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