004
FXUS61 KBOX 310659
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
259 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY TODAY, THOUGH COOLER WITH FEW CLOUDS FOLLOWING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.
- UNSETTLED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING WHICH DAYS MAY HAVE
BETTER STORM CHANCES IS STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE.
- MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOT SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND, BUT DRIER
WEATHER MOST OF THE TIME. DRY AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY AND ON THE
MONDAY HOLIDAY, WITH ONSHORE BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY TODAY, THOUGH COOLER WITH FEW CLOUDS
FOLLOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING, CLEARING SKIES AND USHERING IN
DRIER AIR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE COAST BY AROUND 8
AM. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN MA. FARTHER INLAND,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING WHICH DAYS
MAY HAVE BETTER STORM CHANCES IS STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME PARKED OVER THE MARITIMES, WHICH
WILL PROVIDE RESISTANCE TO PUSHING THE LINGERING FRONT OUT OF
OUR REGION UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. AS LONG AS THIS FRONT IS
NEARBY, THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS, AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THAT SAID, NOT EXPECTING IT WILL BE
RAINING ALL WEEK.
RIGHT NOW THE TWO PERIODS THAT APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART
OF TUESDAY, AND AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO PART OF
THURSDAY. TRIED TO PROVIDE SOME TIMING IN THE FORECAST BASED ON
THE LATEST CAMS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION
DETAILS IS STILL RATHER LOW. SO, FOCUSED MORE ON BROADER TRENDS
RATHER THAN TRYING TO PIN IT DOWN TO THE HOUR. CURRENTLY
THINKING THE DRIEST PORTION OF THIS WEEK SHOULD BE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE LOOKS
LIMITED, BUT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE EXISTS LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ALOFT ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST
SOME OF THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TO WORK ITS WAY IN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOT
SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND, BUT
DRIER WEATHER MOST OF THE TIME. DRY AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY AND ON
THE MONDAY HOLIDAY, WITH ONSHORE BREEZES.
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE DRIER MUCH OF THE TIME.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO
LABOR DAY, LEADING TO AN ONSHORE FLOW BUT WITH SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL FLIP WINDS TO NE TO E
AROUND 5-10 KT, A LITTLE STRONGER FOR THE EASTERN COASTAL
TERMINALS.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
MVFR DEVELOPING, WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE, ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM W TO E AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
SOME EMBEDDED -TSRA POSSIBLE AS WELL.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. LESS
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHRA, CHANCE
TSRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS FROM N TO S EARLY THIS
MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS MORE NE INITIALLY, THEN MORE S HEADING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT S WINDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT,
ALONG WITH MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INCREASING S TO SE WINDS TUESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BELK/LOCONTO
AVIATION...BELK/LOCONTO
MARINE...BELK/LOCONTO
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