470
FXUS61 KBOX 311755
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
155 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY TODAY, THOUGH COOLER WITH FEW CLOUDS FOLLOWING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.
- UNSETTLED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING WHICH DAYS MAY HAVE
BETTER STORM CHANCES IS STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE.
- MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOT SHOWERS
FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND, BUT DRIER
WEATHER MOST OF THE TIME. DRY AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY AND ON THE
MONDAY HOLIDAY, WITH ONSHORE BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY TODAY, THOUGH COOLER WITH FEW CLOUDS
FOLLOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING, CLEARING SKIES AND USHERING IN
DRIER AIR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE COAST BY AROUND 8
AM. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN MA. FARTHER INLAND,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING WHICH DAYS
MAY HAVE BETTER STORM CHANCES IS STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME PARKED OVER THE MARITIMES, WHICH
WILL PROVIDE RESISTANCE TO PUSHING THE LINGERING FRONT OUT OF
OUR REGION UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. AS LONG AS THIS FRONT IS
NEARBY, THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS, AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THAT SAID, NOT EXPECTING IT WILL BE
RAINING ALL WEEK.
RIGHT NOW THE TWO PERIODS THAT APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART
OF TUESDAY, AND AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO PART OF
THURSDAY. TRIED TO PROVIDE SOME TIMING IN THE FORECAST BASED ON
THE LATEST CAMS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION
DETAILS IS STILL RATHER LOW. SO, FOCUSED MORE ON BROADER TRENDS
RATHER THAN TRYING TO PIN IT DOWN TO THE HOUR. CURRENTLY
THINKING THE DRIEST PORTION OF THIS WEEK SHOULD BE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE LOOKS
LIMITED, BUT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE EXISTS LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ALOFT ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST
SOME OF THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TO WORK ITS WAY IN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOT
SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND, BUT
DRIER WEATHER MOST OF THE TIME. DRY AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY AND ON
THE MONDAY HOLIDAY, WITH ONSHORE BREEZES.
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE DRIER MUCH OF THE TIME.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO
LABOR DAY, LEADING TO AN ONSHORE FLOW BUT WITH SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AND DRY. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST A SLOW-MOVING FRONT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST. COASTAL SEA BREEZES
CONTINUE TODAY AT AROUND 10 KT, WHILE INLAND WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY
AT LESS THAN 6 KT.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
CEILINGS LOWER TO LOW-END MVFR, IF NOT IFR, AS SHRA ARRIVES FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE
TO LIFR ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS BY 08-10Z, WITH VISIBILITIES
LOWERING TO 2-5 SM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHTNING, WITH THE
GREATEST PROBABILITY ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, PARTICULARLY KBDL. WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT, REMAINING LIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
INCREASING TO 8-10 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
POCKETS OF LIFR TO START; OTHERWISE, A MIXTURE OF IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTS, WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE.
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS
AND 6-10 KT AT INTERIOR TERMINALS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY PREVAIL ALONG AND EAST OF I-95, WHILE AREAS
FARTHER INLAND REMAIN IFR TO LIFR. ONSHORE EASTERLY WINDS AND
CHANCES FOR SHRA CONTINUE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHRA, CHANCE
TSRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE SHIFTS NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT AS A SEMI-STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL RIDE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY, BEGINNING TONIGHT AND BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
RAIN DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO POOR
VISIBILITY. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND EASTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 2 FT TONIGHT, THEN SLOWLY BUILD TO 2
TO 3 FT TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS MAY WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS, BUT NO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BELK/LOCONTO
AVIATION...DOOLEY/NOCERA
MARINE...DOOLEY/NOCERA
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