809
FXUS61 KBOX 022343
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
743 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
- MAINLY DRY & VERY PLEASANT FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR
SOME DIURNALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON SAT. PLEASANT TEMPS
TOO WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT LOWER-MIDDLE 80S FRI.
- ELEVATED RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY BY SUN INTO MON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
A FRONTAL WAVE TRAVERSES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH A RICH
OF PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTAINING PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2". THIS WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS
AROUND 2AM ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS AND REACHES THE EAST COAST
AROUND 4-6AM. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH RICH MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS WESTERN
MA/CT IN THE SPRINGFIELD/HARTFORD AREAS, BUT THERE IS NO STRONG
SIGNAL FOR ANYTHING OVERLY IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
AS THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE, SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUDES
FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME CLEARING IN THE LATE-
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE CLEARING WILL COME
DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY WHICH WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION THURSDAY, SO WE LEANED
ON A UNIFORM 40% POP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 2PM. EXPECT
CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WARM/SUNNY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY & VERY PLEASANT FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
EXCEPT FOR SOME DIURNALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON SAT. PLEASANT
TEMPS TOO WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT LOWER-MIDDLE 80S FRI.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN PLEASANT WEATHER. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON SAT...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
ON FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA SUN
INTO MON SHOULD BRING AN END TO THIS RISK FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRI WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S...BUT GENERALLY 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN FACT...COOLEST DAYS WILL BE SAT AND SUN AS THE EASTERN MA
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS PROBABLY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S WITH A STIFF NORTHEAST AFTERNOON BREEZE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...BUT THERE MIGHT BE SOME
40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS BY SUN NIGHT/MON AM
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ELEVATED RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND ESPECIALLY BY SUN INTO MON.
GIVEN PERSISTENT NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SWELL...WE DO EXPECT AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE BY SUN INTO MON ON EAST FACING OCEAN EXPOSED
BEACHES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE..
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL ENTER INTER MA/CT AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-MORNING THU. ALWAYS UNCERTAIN
WHERE THE MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION TRACKS WITH THESE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. IT IS POSSIBLE THE WORST OF IT PASSES TO
OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDES.
NONETHELESS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED T-STORMS. LLWS IS ALSO A
CONCERN NEAR DAYBREAK GIVEN A MODEST SOUTHWEST LLJ.
BULK OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE COAST BY MID-LATE THU MORNING.
WE MAY SEE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS RE-DEVELOP
DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. OTHERWISE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN
CEILINGS FROM WEST TO EAST BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SOME
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF I-95 MAY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON, BUT IFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT GRADUALLY TURN WESTERLY ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY AT SPEEDS OF 6-12 KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR EXCEPT LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALIZED
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAIN CONCERN FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED T-STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL WILL BE FROM 08Z TO 14Z THU.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAIN CONCERN FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED T-STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL WILL BE FROM 6Z TO 12Z THU.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LABOR DAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER/LIGHTNING. SOME LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MODEST BUT STEADY SOUTHEAST FLOW
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SEAS STAY
AT SUB SCY LEVELS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND CARRY INTO FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SATURDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH AREAS OF
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
SUNDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
LABOR DAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK
MARINE...RM/FRANK
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