539
FXUS61 KBOX 082345
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
745 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WATCH CONTINUES, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR WATERS
NOT COVERED BY THE GALE WATCH. STRONGEST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY REMAIN FOCUSED ON FAR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, CAPE COD,
AND THE ISLANDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGS
SHOWERS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, CAPE COD, AND THE ISLANDS.
- FULL SUN, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND ONSHORE BREEZES FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS
AFTERNOON, A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO EXPECT A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS. AS FOR WEDNESDAY, THE
FRONT DRIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PWATS
RISING TO 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A WAA SHOWER
DURING THE DAY, THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR A DRIER DAY WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE, A SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGS SHOWERS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, CAPE COD, AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THOUGH THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A
SOAKING EVENT, IT WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE, WHERE ONE TOWN
SEES A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR WHILE TWO TOWNS OVER PERHAPS ONLY A LIGHT
RAIN. MORE IMPRESSIVE ARE THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS. DEPENDING ON YOUR
FLAVOR OF GUIDANCE, 925 MB WINDS ARE 45 TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TRAVERSE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PREDAWN
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT CAN MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.
THINKING WHERE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD, ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, CAPE COD, AND THE ISLANDS, THERE IS THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR WINDS TO MIX DOWN, WITH SUB-ADVISORY GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH. HOWEVER, IF TEMPERATURES WERE TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA, THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING.
THOUGH WITH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION OVERHEAD, IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO REALIZE THOSE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND TRANSPORT THEM DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. NEVERTHELESS, IT'S SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
CURRENTLY, WE FEEL THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY. AROUND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE GALE WATCHES FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
SLOWER TO LOWER, SO IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN COMES A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM AROUND +20C THURSDAY TO +10C
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...FULL SUN, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND ONSHORE
BREEZES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
STILL LOOKING AT A REALLY NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, WITH THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BEING DOMINATED BY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CELL COMING IN FROM
CANADA. EXPECT FULL SUN, LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUPPORTING SOME COOL
NIGHTS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY
COULD OFFER THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT THESE ALSO DON'T LOOK
CAPABLE OF WASHOUTS. HIGHS FRI AND SAT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS, EXCEPT LOW 70S NEAR THE EASTERN
COASTLINES. BY SUNDAY HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE:
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE, THOUGH MODERATE ON WIND DIRECTION AT
BOS.
BKN VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS,
WINDS ARE A LIGHT SE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AFTER 07Z AT BOS IF
THEY STAY LIGHT SE THROUGH THE WED MORNING PUSH, OR IF THEY
FLIP TO A LIGHT NW THEN COME AROUND TO LIGHT N/NE BETWEEN
09-12Z. BOTH SCENARIOS HAVE RUNWAY IMPLICATIONS. OTHERWISE,
REMAINING TAFS FEATURE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS, BECOMING CALM AT
TIMES.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, MULTI-LAYERED BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN
S/SW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KT, WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.
GUSTS ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE MORE LIKELY CONFINED TO
BOS AND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR AT LEAST INITIALLY, THOUGH MVFR/VFR POSSIBLE WITH SPOTTY
SHRA AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY LURCHES SOUTHWARD. SW WINDS AROUND
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT, STRONGEST CAPE AND ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIGHT, WIND DIRECTIONS BETWEEN 07-14Z ARE UNCERTAIN: EITHER
STAYING SE OR TURNING LIGHT NW THEN LIGHT NE AROUND 10-12Z
BEFORE FLIPPING TO S BY MIDMORNING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
SUNDAY: BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHT E/SE WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KT EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH S/SW WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS AROUND 3 FT OR LESS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT INCREASE TO AROUND 4 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS.
LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GALE WATCHES
WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO CAPE COD WHERE
ENOUGH MIXING NEAR THE LAND-SEA INTERFACE COULD BE ENOUGH TO BUMP
GUSTS INTO THE BORDERLINE/MARGINAL GALE RANGE AROUND 35 KT, BUT WE
HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING NEARSHORE AND
OUTER WATERS MARINE ZONES WITH SW GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5-9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND 2-4 FT NEARSHORE.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 10 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ230-235>237-250-251-254>256.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ231>234.
DISCUSSION...LOCONTO/DOOLEY
AVIATION...LOCONTO/DOOLEY
MARINE...LOCONTO/DOOLEY
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